Two former congressional staff members argue that a bipartisan fiscal summit similar to the 1990 George H.W. Bush Budget Summit represents the best path forward for addressing the nation's growing debt and ensuring Social Security and Medicare solvency, according to an opinion piece published this week.

Wendell Primus, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution who previously served as staff to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), and G. William Hoagland, senior vice president of the Bipartisan Policy Center who formerly worked for Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) and was staff director of the Senate Budget Committee, contend that both tax increases and benefit reductions will be necessary to achieve a healthy federal balance.

What the Left Is Saying

Primus and Hoagland argue that deficit reduction should be progressively distributed, with families at the top of the income distribution required to pay a larger share of their income than those at the bottom. The authors write that any politician who says slowing benefit growth or reducing benefits should not be considered, or that taxes should not be raised, should be viewed skeptically by voters.

The two argue that both parties must compromise and that Social Security and Medicare reform should be tackled together with deficit reduction in one large package. They note that unlike 1990, the desire to avoid reductions in Social Security benefits will serve as a strong incentive for reaching compromise.

Progressive economists have raised concerns about the impact of deficits on working families, citing analysis showing that an American family with slightly below median income carrying typical debt could see household income $1,600 lower in 10 years and interest payments totaling more than $25,000 higher over the same period under current fiscal trajectories.

What the Right Is Saying

Conservative budget hawks have long argued that spending cuts should be the primary vehicle for deficit reduction. The authors acknowledge that the Trump administration and the 119th Congress have shown little appetite for addressing the budget deficit, continuing a trend they describe as spanning multiple administrations.

The op-ed notes that former President George H.W. Bush broke his no-new-taxes pledge in 1990 to address what was then considered an unacceptable $220 billion deficit representing 4 percent of GDP. The resulting bipartisan summit at Andrews Air Force Base produced a $500 billion deficit reduction package, which the authors estimate would translate to approximately $2.9 trillion relative to today's economy.

Hoagland's background includes service under Senate Republican leadership, and his current position at the Bipartisan Policy Center reflects an institutional approach that seeks common ground on fiscal issues.

What the Numbers Show

The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next 10 years, the federal government will run an average yearly deficit of $2.4 trillion. Under this trajectory, public debt would reach 120 percent of GDP by 2036, surpassing levels at any point in U.S. history, and 175 percent of GDP within three decades.

Last year's federal budget deficit was $1.8 trillion. Economists across the political spectrum argue that interest rates are approximately 1 percentage point higher due to these deficits, with economic growth slowed by between one-tenth and two-tenths of a percent annually.

Janet Yellen has argued that the United States faces fiscal dominance, where debt and deficits place such pressure on financing needs that they create undue pressures on monetary policy, resulting in higher and more volatile inflation. Both Social Security and Medicare Hospital Insurance trust funds are projected to be depleted before the next president's first four-year term expires.

The Bottom Line

The authors propose a two-step approach: first, creating a bipartisan commission of experts to recommend deficit reduction policies; second, convening a fiscal summit of legislators charged with converting those recommendations into law. They argue that legislation has already been introduced in the current Congress to create such an expert commission.

While the authors acknowledge that political will and leadership to address debt and deficits is currently lacking, they contend this will is precisely what is needed and can only come from members of Congress and the White House working together. The 1990 summit resulted in budget surpluses by the end of the Clinton presidency and beginning of George W. Bush's term.

The authors suggest that if addressing the deficit before the 2028 elections proves unfeasible, a new administration could successfully implement this process, with public engagement serving as an important for encouraging lawmakers to pursue bipartisan solutions.