Nevada Republicans are preparing to vote Tuesday in a primary that will determine who fills the state's only Republican congressional seat after Rep. Mark Amodei announced his retirement earlier this year, creating an opening in Nevada's 2nd District for the first time in 15 years. The race pits two Republican candidates against each other: former state Sen. James Settelmeyer, backed by Amodei and Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo, against retired Lt. Col. David Flippo, a financial adviser who has never held elected office but won the endorsement of President Donald Trump.
The district covers all of northern Nevada, including Reno in the swing county of Washoe. Republicans hold a significant registration advantage in the district, making the primary winner likely to become the next congressman. Strategists and political scientists are watching the race closely for clues about Trump's continued influence over Republican voters as he enters the final half of his term.
What the Left Is Saying
Nevada Democrats acknowledge they face an uphill climb in a heavily Republican district but say they will contest the seat in November regardless of who wins Tuesday's primary. Party strategists have suggested Flippo could be the easier opponent to defeat because his strong ties to Trump might alienate nonpartisan voters in Washoe County, which has historically been competitive.
"The race needed a 'strong conservative,'" Flippo said during his campaign, framing himself as a political newcomer who can bring fresh perspective to Washington. Trump's endorsement noted Flippo has the backing of "the most Highly Respected MAGA Warriors in Nevada." Democrats will be watching to see whether that national profile helps or hurts in a district where independent voters could decide a general election.
What the Right Is Saying
Settelmeyer has emphasized his two decades of experience in Nevada's Legislature and state government, including service in both the Senate and Assembly and as director of the Nevada Department of Conservation and Natural Resources. He served as co-chair of Trump's 2024 Nevada campaign.
"It's just very important that at the end of the day, that northern Nevada chooses a northern Nevadan to go to DC to represent northern Nevada," Settelmeyer told a crowd in Washoe Valley recently, pointing to Flippo's recent move from southern Nevada into the district. His campaign has argued that "northern Nevada voters deserve a representative who knows our issues, understands our communities, and has the experience to represent them in Washington, not someone who only moved here when a political opportunity opened up."
Flippo has focused his attacks on Settelmeyer's legislative record, including Settelmeyer's support for allowing immigrants living in the country illegally to obtain driver's licenses. "I'm strong on my values, I'm stronger on the conservative principles, and I don't have the voting record," Flippo said in a recent interview.
What the Numbers Show
Nevada's 2nd District has not been competitive in recent elections. Amodei held the seat for 15 years without serious Democratic opposition. Republicans hold a significant voter registration advantage over Democrats in the district, which includes all of northern Nevada from Reno to Elko.
Flippo previously ran in the Republican primary for Nevada's 4th District in 2024 and lost. He entered the race after well-known Nevada conservative figures declined to run. Trump's endorsement came last week, after both candidates had been competing to demonstrate their loyalty to the president.
Political science professors say the dynamics of this race reflect broader shifts in Republican primaries. "Twenty years ago, we would have said this race is probably a shoe-in for the more experienced candidate," said Jeremy Gelman, a political science professor at the University of Nevada in Reno. "The way Republican primary politics have evolved, that's not the case anymore."
Flippo has backing from national Republicans closely aligned with Trump's MAGA movement, including former Rep. Matt Gaetz and the Freedom Caucus Fund, the political action committee for the hard-right conservative bloc of House Republicans.
The Bottom Line
Tuesday's primary outcome will signal whether Trump's endorsement can carry a candidate without prior electoral experience in a Republican primary against an established party figure. Both candidates agree on core policy priorities including the economy, water rights and land use issues particularly significant in Nevada where the federal government owns most land.
The winner will face likely Democratic opposition in November, though Republicans start as heavy favorites in the district. Amodei's success came from balancing support for Trump's agenda with occasional criticism of the president on specific issues, a model that may or may not appeal to voters depending on Tuesday's result. What happens next will be watched nationally as an indicator of how much influence Trump retains over Republican voters heading into the final two years of his term.