For a few seismic days this summer, a scattering of towns and villages in the north of England will become the center of the political world. The Makerfield parliamentary by-election on June 18 is an improbable setting for a political earthquake that could reshape Britain's government.
By-elections — the British equivalent of a U.S. special election — are held when a member of Parliament resigns, dies or becomes enmeshed in scandal. There are usually a handful each year, offering a brief snapshot of public sentiment. With 650 members of Parliament, a single by-election rarely constitutes a significant shift in power.
Makerfield is different. Here, voters will choose the future direction of the U.K., where Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour government has collapsed in polls since winning a landslide general election two years ago. Many in the party are calling for a change of leader as Nigel Farage's populist-right Reform Party threatens to sweep to power at the next general election, currently expected in 2029.
What the Left Is Saying
The most viable candidate to challenge Starmer is Andy Burnham, a former Labour Cabinet minister who quit Westminster almost a decade ago to become Mayor of Greater Manchester. The 56-year-old now oversees England's second city and a surrounding region of 2.8 million people — roughly the size of Baltimore and its metropolitan area.
Burnham supporters argue he possesses the populist touch that Starmer lacks. His ability to connect with ordinary voters and vocally fight for his region against perceived Westminster elites has struck a chord with grassroots Labour members, who view him as far more popular than the current prime minister on any generic ballot.
"He knows this area better than anyone," said one senior Labour figure. "He's been the MP for neighboring Leigh for 15 years. He grew up and still lives in the surrounding area."
Last month, with Starmer's leadership under intense scrutiny following a catastrophic showing in local authority elections, Makerfield's Labour MP Josh Simons — once a close ally of Starmer but no longer — announced his resignation from Parliament to provide Burnham a route back to Westminster.
If Burnham wins on June 18, he will immediately challenge Starmer for the leadership. Supporters argue he has the backing among Labour MPs and party members to succeed, potentially giving Britain a new prime minister by fall.
What the Right Is Saying
Critics within Labour and opposition figures argue that Burnham's candidacy represents a risky gamble with no guaranteed payoff. By-elections are notoriously hard to predict, and Makerfield presents precisely the kind of seat — white working class, Brexit-supporting, furious with traditional political parties — where support for Reform has surged.
Nigel Farage has vowed to throw everything at winning the seat. The Reform candidate is Robert Kenyon, a local plumber who lost to Simons in 2024 when Simons received 18,000 votes to Kenyon's 12,800. Since then, Labour's popularity has nosedived while support for Farage's party has surged.
"Were they facing any other candidate, Reform would be red-hot favorites to pick up the seat," noted one political analyst. "Burnham is no ordinary Labour candidate — Greater Manchester is his manor where his name recognition is near-universal — but this will be no coronation."
Conservative commentators argue that a Burnham loss on June 18 would thoroughly disprove the argument that he's the best candidate for Labour to take on Reform at the ballot box. Starmer could then face challenges from elsewhere in the party, though no other candidate appears assured of success.
"The power invested in the people of Makerfield is extraordinary," one opposition figure said. "A few thousand swing voters deciding Britain's next leader — that's democracy in action."
What the Numbers Show
In the 2024 general election, Labour's Josh Simons won Makerfield with approximately 18,000 votes against Reform's Robert Kenyon with roughly 12,800 votes.
Starmer achieved a landslide victory in 2024 but his government is now historically unpopular. Labour has collapsed in recent polls while Reform has surged — polling suggests the party could face crushing defeat at the next general election if current trends continue.
The by-election will take place June 18. Turnout for British by-elections is generally low, which can benefit well-organized ground campaigns from insurgent parties like Reform.
Starmer won a parliamentary majority of 174 seats in 2024 — one of the largest Labour mandates in recent history. Losing Makerfield would represent a significant symbolic blow but would not immediately change the government's numerical majority in Parliament.
The Bottom Line
The June 18 by-election will test whether Andy Burnham can translate his regional popularity into parliamentary success and build momentum for a leadership challenge, or whether Reform's surge has fundamentally changed the electoral map in Labour heartlands.
If Burnham wins narrowly, Starmer faces immediate pressure to step aside. A loss would effectively end Burnham's path back to Westminster through this route and leave Labour without a clear alternative leader heading into what polls suggest could be a devastating general election defeat.
The whole world will be watching as a few thousand voters in a small English constituency determine whether Britain gets a new prime minister — or whether Starmer limps on, perhaps all the way to an electoral reckoning that current polling suggests could reshape British politics for years to come.