Former Republican Gov. Paul LePage has advanced to the general election in Maine's 2nd Congressional District, NBC News projects, as Democrats remain locked in a contested primary that will be decided by ranked choice voting tabulation. The seat is being vacated by Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, one of the most conservative House Democrats, who held onto the district despite it backing former President Donald Trump in both 2020 and 2024. His retirement has left Democrats facing their toughest battle yet to retain this historically competitive seat.
Three Democratic candidates are competing for the nomination: State Sen. Joe Baldacci, son of former Gov. John Baldacci; State Auditor Matt Dunlap, a former secretary of state running as a progressive; and Jordan Wood, a former chief of staff to California Rep. Katie Porter who previously worked at End Citizens United. None secured a majority in initial voting, triggering the ranked choice process where voters' second, third and fourth choices will be redistributed until one candidate reaches 50 percent.
What the Left Is Saying
House Democrats have rallied behind Baldacci as their preferred nominee, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee endorsing his campaign alongside the top House Democratic super PAC. Supporters argue that his name recognition as the son of a former governor and his experience in the state legislature make him the strongest general election candidate against LePage.
Progressive supporters of Dunlap point to his long political career and embrace of policies like Medicare for All as evidence he can energize the Democratic base. Wood's campaign has emphasized his fundraising prowess — he leads the field by a wide margin — and his experience working on campaign finance reform, arguing he can contrast sharply with LePage on kitchen-table issues.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans are bullish on their chances in the district for the first time in years. With Golden exiting, party strategists see an opening to finally flip a seat that has eluded them despite Trump winning it twice. LePage brings eight years of executive experience as governor and strong name recognition across the state.
Conservative commentators have argued that the ranked choice process could benefit LePage by splitting Democratic voters among three candidates with no clear majority winner in early returns. Some Republican operatives have noted that any Democrat emerging from a crowded progressive field may be too liberal for a district that backed Trump by significant margins.
What the Numbers Show
No vote totals or percentages were available at publication time, as Maine's ranked choice tabulation remains ongoing. The district has been represented by Golden since 2019. Trump won Maine's 2nd District with approximately 53 percent of the vote in 2024 and a similar margin in 2020. The seat is considered one of roughly a dozen that will determine control of the House in November.
The Bottom Line
The ranked choice outcome will determine which Democrat faces LePage in what promises to be one of the most expensive and closely watched House races of the cycle. Both parties are expected to pour significant resources into the district, making it a national bellwether for competitive seat dynamics heading into the general election.