Both Maine gubernatorial primaries are headed to ranked choice tabulations after NBC News projected that no candidate in either race will receive a majority of first-choice votes, according to initial returns. The development sets up a rare dual application of the state's ranked choice voting system for statewide primary elections.
Maine adopted ranked choice voting in 2016, becoming the first state to implement the system for statewide and federal elections. Under the rules, when no candidate surpasses 50 percent, support from lower-performing candidates gets redistributed to voters' next choices in successive rounds until one contender achieves a majority. The open governorship stems from term limits preventing incumbent Janet Mills, elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2022, from seeking another term.
What the Left Is Saying
Among Democrats, physician Nirav Shah holds a narrow lead in first-choice votes but remains well below the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid ranked choice tabulation. Hannah Pingree, former state House speaker and daughter of Rep. Chellie Pingree, sits in second place. Former state Senate President Troy Jackson, who has received an endorsement from Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., is competing among a broader field that also includes Secretary of State Shenna Bellows.
In a strategic move reflecting the ranked choice dynamics, three Democratic candidates — Jackson, Pingree and Bellows — cross-endorsed one another late last month, announcing they would rank each other at the tops of their respective ballots. The three have campaigned together and urged supporters to follow suit, effectively attempting to consolidate progressive voters while isolating Shah. Shah responded by releasing a video on June 1 encouraging voters who do not list him first to rank him as their second choice.
What the Right Is Saying
On the Republican side, Bobby Charles leads in first-choice tallies after weeks of being viewed as the front-runner. The 65-year-old former naval intelligence officer and president of the Charles Group LLC, a Washington-based lobbying firm, previously served as head of the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs under President George W. Bush's administration. Charles has emphasized his federal government experience and national security background.
"I need to take an ax right now to failed woke policies," Charles said in a campaign advertisement that showed him chopping wood. "It is time that we cut crime, cut taxes, cut sanctuary cities and cut woke." He faces Republican primary rivals including healthcare technology businessman Jonathan Bush, real estate businessman David Jones, former state legislator Garrett Mason and fitness industry businessman Ben Midgley.
What the Numbers Show
NBC News projects no candidate in either primary will reach a majority threshold, triggering ranked choice tabulations for both parties. In the Democratic race, Shah leads but remains under 50 percent with multiple viable candidates still in contention. The cross-endorsement arrangement among three Democratic candidates represents an attempt to pool first-choice support that could prove significant when lower-ranked choices are redistributed.
Maine has a history of electing governors from both major parties in recent decades. Mills, a Democrat, succeeded two terms of Republican Gov. Paul LePage. The state's electorate is characterized by its independent-minded approach to elections, which ranked choice advocates argue better reflects voter preferences while critics contend it adds complexity to the electoral process.
The Bottom Line
The dual application of ranked choice voting in both gubernatorial primaries marks a significant test for Maine's 2016 ballot initiative. Final nominees will not be determined until ranked choice tabulations are complete, which could take days depending on when rounds of redistribution occur. Both parties face uncertainty heading into the general election, where Maine's purple electorate means either nominee would enter as a competitive candidate in the race to succeed Mills.