Voters who rejected their rulers without mercy on both sides of the Atlantic in 2024 are now poised to deliver resounding defeats to leaders they elected just two years ago, according to a new POLITICO Poll analysis.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces the prospect of being ousted later this year if Andy Burnham succeeds in winning a special parliamentary vote in Makerfield next week. In the United States, President Donald Trump appears to be barreling toward lame duck status with Democrats increasingly bullish about their midterm prospects in November, particularly in recapturing the U.S. House of Representatives.

What the Right Is Saying

Republican strategists interpret the polling data differently. The survey shows 71 percent of Trump voters also say politicians only look out for themselves, a finding conservatives argue reflects broad dissatisfaction with career politicians regardless of party.

"What we're seeing is a cross-Atlantic disconnect between voters and electeds," said Kevin Madden, a longtime GOP communications strategist and senior partner at Penta, a consulting firm. "Voters in the U.S. are squarely focused on at-home domestic priorities and kitchen-table concerns like food, health care and housing costs."

Conservative analysts note that similar anti-incumbent waves have swept multiple European nations since February of last year, toppling leaders in Germany, Hungary, the Netherlands, and the Czech Republic.

"Voters want leaders who will actually deliver on their promises," said a Republican communications consultant. "This isn't about party; it's about performance."

What the Left Is Saying

Progressive analysts argue that voter cynicism reflects legitimate grievances with political institutions rather than mere frustration for its own sake. The POLITICO Poll findings show 79 percent of those who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 say politicians only look out for themselves, suggesting deep disappointment among Democratic voters with the pace of change.

Progressive commentators have pointed to affordability concerns and economic anxieties as drivers of anti-incumbent sentiment. They argue that when families struggle with food costs, healthcare expenses, and housing prices, they naturally hold those in power accountable.

"Voters are sending a message that they want results," said one Democratic strategist who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal polling. "The kitchen-table issues matter more than anything else."

Left-leaning policy advocates note that similar dynamics have played out across Europe, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party recording its worst national election result in decades and Canada's Justin Trudeau stepping down amid growing voter frustration.

What the Numbers Show

The POLITICO Poll, conducted by Public First, reveals striking cynicism on both sides of the Atlantic:

71 percent of U.S. adults say politicians only look out for themselves, including 79 percent of Harris voters and 71 percent of Trump voters.

In the United Kingdom, 56 percent of adults said the bigger problem with politics is politicians who do not do the right thing, while just 15 percent blame the system itself.

Public First's cynicism scale found that 45 percent of British adults scored high on measures of political distrust, as did 37 percent of U.S. adults.

In the U.K., 64 percent of adults said they do not think Starmer will remain as prime minister until the next general election.

Since winning a landslide victory just under two years ago, Starmer has seen his Labour Party fall to historic lows in opinion polling.

The Bottom Line

The POLITICO Poll findings suggest that anti-incumbent sentiment remains a powerful force in Western democracies. The data indicates voters across party lines share deep skepticism about political institutions and elected officials.

The upcoming Makerfield by-election next week could test whether these currents translate into concrete electoral outcomes. If Andy Burnham succeeds, it would likely trigger events leading to Starmer's removal as Labour leader and prime minister, according to political observers.

In the United States, Republicans face their own headwinds ahead of November midterms where Democrats are targeting House seats. The polling suggests incumbents of any party may struggle when voters perceive a gap between political rhetoric and actual results.

Whether this backlash reflects temporary frustration over economic conditions or engrained dissatisfaction with political institutions remains an open question that will likely define elections across the globe for years to come.