A new NBC News poll sponsored by the nonpartisan nonprofit More Perfect shows Americans have a bleak outlook on the nation's future ahead of its 250th birthday next month, with most saying the U.S. has already seen its best days and a record-low number expressing extreme pride in being American.

The survey of 3,000 U.S. adults contacted by phone and text message from May 29 through June 7 reveals a polity deeply divided along partisan, generational, educational and class lines but mostly united in its certainty that the "American Dream" is harder to attain now than it was for prior generations. The results help explain the political tumult of the past generation, an era in which anti-establishment backlash has given rise to populist figures on both sides of the aisle.

What the Left Is Saying

Progressive voices point to the survey's findings about institutional failure and economic anxiety as evidence that government has failed working Americans. Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey alongside Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, drew a parallel to Benjamin Franklin's observation about the half-sun on George Washington's chair at the Constitutional Convention.

"Today, as the astute political observer that he was, Franklin might take a more nuanced look at that chair and agree with its citizens who assess the sun as setting on its institutions, but rising among its citizens," Horwitt said.

Liberals were more likely to lack faith in the federal government, Congress, the Supreme Court, high-tech industry, and the military. Among adults, 78% say the American Dream is further out of reach, with that sentiment varying little across demographic groups. Progressive critics argue this reflects decades of policy choices that have concentrated wealth and eroded economic mobility for ordinary citizens.

What the Right Is Saying

Conservatives point to the same data through a different lens, emphasizing that Americans still believe in foundational values even as they distrust institutions they see as hostile to their worldview. Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies noted that seven out of nine institutions tested saw record numbers of people saying they have "no confidence" in them.

"This is about as low as it's gotten in that period," McInturff said.

Conservatives were more likely to say they have no confidence at all in the national news media, colleges and universities, and public schools. Among 2024 Trump voters, 62% say they are extremely proud to be Americans, compared to 12% of those who voted for Democrat Kamala Harris. Conservative commentators argue this gap reflects a fundamental disagreement about whether America is living up to its founding ideals rather than skepticism about the ideals themselves.

What the Numbers Show

The poll reveals stark numbers on institutional trust: For the first time in the survey's history, 52% say they have "very little" confidence or "none at all" in the federal government, compared to 34% in 2016. An even greater share of adults, 56%, feel the same way about Congress, up from 39% in 2016.

Only the military rates well with the public: 60% say they have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence in U.S. forces, but that is down 13 percentage points since December 2016. The 15% who say they have little or no faith in the armed forces represents the highest share since a 1988 Gallup poll.

The American pride numbers show significant decline: Just 33% say now that they are "extremely proud" to be an American, compared with as many as 70% in the years immediately following September 11, 2001. Nearly identical shares of adults from Trump states, Harris states and swing states say they believe the nation's best years are in the rearview mirror: 58% in all.

Despite pessimism about institutions, 54% said their view is that "most Americans share the same core values but disagree about policies and issues," compared to 44% who said most Americans have fundamentally different core values. Half of adults say the Constitution has stood the test of time and is capable of handling challenges ahead.

The Bottom Line

The poll captures a nation at a crossroads as it approaches its 250th anniversary: deeply skeptical of institutions but united in underlying values, pessimistic about the future yet largely confident in fellow citizens. McInturff said politicians haven't caught up to public sentiment about working together to solve problems.

"Across the survey, there was a clear desire for Americans to come together at the individual level and a willingness to do so, even when they strongly disagree politically," he said. "The country is waiting for its leaders and institutions to do the same with that."

What remains to be seen is whether political leaders can bridge these divides or whether institutional distrust will continue to fuel populist movements on both left and right in the years ahead.