An endorsement from President Donald Trump is worth a lot in Republican primaries. But is it worth more than $100 million in Georgia? Can it propel a congressman past an insurgent outsider in Alabama? Can it transform a candidate into a front-runner in Oklahoma?
Trump has been at the center of this year's midterm campaigns, and his influence will be tested in different ways Tuesday as four states and the District of Columbia hold primaries. Among Democrats, the primaries will hinge on longstanding divides between progressives and moderates as the party tries to chart the best path forward to November.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive Democrats are watching several races closely for signs of how their wing of the party is performing heading into the general election. In the District of Columbia mayor's race, candidate Janeese Lewis George describes herself as a democratic socialist and has drawn comparisons to Sen. Bernie Sanders' presidential campaigns.
George's platform focuses heavily on affordability and protecting home rule. She called Trump's suggestion that he might take over the city if she wins "an attack on democracy itself." The race will use D.C.'s new ranked choice voting system, which could delay results by days as officials count second-choice votes if no candidate crosses 50%.
In California, Aisha Wahab, a state senator running in the special election to replace former Rep. Eric Swalwell, represents the more progressive wing of the Democratic Party. She argues for expansion of social safety nets and takes aim at "corporate profiteering." Swalwell resigned from Congress after sexual assault allegations, which he has denied.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans are testing whether Trump's endorsements can overcome significant financial disadvantages. In Georgia's governor runoff, Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones faces healthcare tycoon Rick Jackson, who has spent more than $100 million of his own money on the race.
Trump endorsed Jones more than a year ago and reiterated his support last week, praising Jones' "Courage and Wisdom" in a social media post. The president wrote that rarely has the power of his endorsement been tested against such spending disparity. Jackson finished second with 33% to Jones' 38% in the May 19 primary.
In Alabama's Senate Republican runoff, Trump is backing U.S. Rep. Barry Moore, who has promised to be "a warrior for President Trump's 'America First' agenda." He faces former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson, who is presenting himself as a Washington outsider trying to harness anti-establishment fervor against Trump's preferred candidate.
What the Numbers Show
Georgia Governor Runoff: Burt Jones received 38% in the May primary; Rick Jackson received 33%. The winner will lead a major battleground state.
Alabama Senate Republican Primary: The winner of the Moore-Hudson runoff will be heavily favored in November in this Republican stronghold, replacing Sen. Tommy Tuberville who is running for governor.
Georgia Secretary of State Runoff: Two Republicans are competing to succeed Brad Raffensperger, who resisted Trump's requests to overturn the 2020 election results.
Oklahoma Governor Primary: Trump endorsed former state Sen. Mike Mazzei two weeks ago in a crowded field without a clear front-runner; the race will go to a runoff if no candidate receives a majority.
California 15th Congressional District Special Election: Both Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez also appear on the November general election ballot for the full term; Tuesday's vote determines who serves out Swalwell's remaining term until January.
The Bottom Line
Tuesday's primaries will test multiple theories about American politics in the Trump era. Can money overcome presidential backing? Can outsiders defeat incumbents once they become part of the establishment? And how far can election denialism extend without consequence?
Results from Georgia and Alabama will be particularly closely watched for signals about Republican Party direction heading into November. The DC mayoral race will reveal whether voters in the overwhelmingly Democratic city push back against Trump's exercise of federal control over their local government, including an open-ended National Guard deployment and reductions in the federal workforce that makes up a significant portion of city jobs.