House members who opted to run for higher office rather than seek reelection have encountered significant obstacles this cycle, with primary losses mounting faster than in recent election cycles. Of the members who chose to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids, seven have won their primaries while 11 have lost so far, with 11 more races still pending this summer.
The track record suggests that despite having national profiles and substantial campaign war chests, congressional experience may not translate into electoral advantage when running for statewide office. The trend cuts across party lines, affecting Republicans and Democrats alike in competitive primary contests.
What the Left Is Saying
On the Democratic side, Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (Ill.) and Robin Kelly (Ill.) both lost the Illinois Senate primary to Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton despite out-raising their opponents significantly. Krishnamoorthi had built a massive campaign war chest and far outspent rivals in the contest.
Rep. Jasmine Crockett (Texas) leveraged social media stardom to become competitive in the Texas Democratic Senate race, but ultimately fell short of victory. The pattern suggests that progressive primary voters may be prioritizing different qualities than legislative experience when selecting candidates for statewide office.
Democratic analysts note that party endorsements and organizational support have not reliably protected incumbents from congressional seats in these contests, with progressive activists sometimes viewing sitting House members as too moderate or insufficiently committed to core party priorities.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans have seen their own share of high-profile setbacks. Rep. Dusty Johnson (S.D.), a former chair of the Republican Main Street Caucus who was considered a formidable candidate with significant resources, finished third in a four-way South Dakota gubernatorial primary, missing the runoff by just 2 percentage points.
Johnson acknowledged the difficult environment for establishment-aligned Republicans. "House Republicans have a long list of legislative accomplishments, but these are really complicated issues," he told The Hill. "I don't think the normals are messaging as well as angry voices on the extremes." He added that serving in the House is not viewed as a particularly valuable asset by primary voters.
Rep. Randy Feenstra (Iowa) lost his gubernatorial bid to Zach Lahn in an upset that marked the first statewide primary loss for a Trump-endorsed candidate this cycle. President Trump later said he did not have the "proper information" when making the endorsement. Iowa state Rep. Brent Siegrist (R) attributed Feenstra's defeat to anti-incumbent sentiment, noting that voters frustrated with economic and foreign policy issues sought candidates outside the political establishment.
What the Numbers Show
Historical data compiled by Ballotpedia shows significant variation in House member success rates when seeking higher office: 2024 saw a 31 percent loss rate; 2022 reached 47 percent; 2020 hit 58 percent (including four members who unsuccessfully sought their party's presidential nomination); and 2018 had a 33 percent loss rate.
With pending primaries in July, August and September, the overall primary loss rate for this Congress is projected to fall between 45 percent and 58 percent. That would represent one of the highest loss rates since 2018 if projections hold.
The number of House members seeking higher office has grown substantially: just 16 did so in 2024; 17 in 2022; 12 in 2020; and 21 in 2018. This cycle's count stands at 29, with a sizable majority being Republicans facing challenging odds to retain House control.
All six House GOP members who have won Senate primaries this cycle received Trump endorsements: Reps. Mike Collins (Ga.), Barry Moore (Ala.), Kevin Hern (Okla.), Andy Barr (Ky.), Ashley Hinson (Iowa) and Julia Letlow (La.).
The Bottom Line
The pattern emerging from primary results suggests that voters in both parties are demonstrating skepticism toward sitting House members as candidates for statewide office, regardless of their national profile or fundraising ability. Anti-establishment sentiment appears to be a driving factor across multiple competitive races.
For Republicans specifically, Trump endorsements appear nearly essential but not always sufficient, as demonstrated by Feenstra's loss despite receiving the former president's backing. The high number of Republican House members seeking higher office may reflect calculations that serving in a likely minority next Congress offers limited appeal compared to pursuing executive or statewide legislative positions.
Several competitive races remain undecided this summer, and final loss rates will not be known until after September primaries conclude.