A special election in the British constituency of Makerfield on Thursday could determine whether Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester and widely known as "King of the North," returns to Parliament with an eye toward challenging Prime Minister Keir Starmer for leadership of the ruling Labour Party. The post-industrial region in northwest England, home to approximately 100,000 residents across several towns none actually named Makerfield, finds itself at the center of British political life through a quirk of UK election law that would allow Burnham to trigger a party leadership contest without a public vote if elected.
Burnham, 56, who grew up nearby and supports Everton football club in Liverpool, launched his campaign in May calling it "a clarion call for change, change for people in this part of the world, a place I love so much." His national message has been clear: he demands changes to the economy, education, housing, transport, and care systems. He has suggested easing taxes on small businesses while increasing defense spending, all while maintaining the current government's promise not to raise income tax.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive voices within Labour have largely rallied behind Burnham, viewing him as the party's best chance to reverse declining popularity. Ben Ansell, a politics professor at the University of Oxford, said Burnham's main quality is that "he really looks like he is listening to people and feeling their pain." While acknowledging that "words alone won't do the trick" for addressing economic challenges, Ansell stated: "It's probably better to have somebody who is going to speak positive words than somebody in a doomerish spiral."
Supporters point to Greater Manchester becoming the fastest growing economic area of Britain under Burnham's mayoralty as evidence of his administrative competence. The sense that most people's lives are deteriorating under Starmer's leadership has intensified calls for change within Labour ranks, with Burnham positioned as someone who could reconnect the party with its working-class base.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative and right-wing critics argue Burnham is using Makerfield merely as "a stepping stone into No. 10 Downing Street," in the words of Peter Thompson, a 78-year-old record store owner in Ashton-in-Makerfield who expressed reservations about Burnham's motives despite his own dissatisfaction with national leadership. The challenge to Burnham comes not from traditional Conservatives but from Reform UK, led by Trump ally Nigel Farage.
Reform UK's candidate Robert Kenyon, a plumber-turned-councilor, has campaigned on promises of a new local hospital, more police officers, rapid mass deportation of illegal immigrants, and scrapping net-zero climate policies. However, Kenyon's campaign has been complicated by historical social media posts unearthed by British media in which he wrote: "I'm sexist, sorry but I am," along with other comments about women being unable to drive or referee sports. Neither Reform nor Kenyon disputes the posts, with Kenyon labeling them "crass" and admitting he "made mistakes."
What the Numbers Show
Polling from Sunday by Convergent showed Burnham at 49% support while Reform UK stood at 37%, suggesting a comfortable lead for the Labour candidate if those numbers hold. However, Farage's party would almost certainly triumph against any other Labour politician, according to polls. Two years after winning a landslide general election victory, Starmer is the least popular British leader on record, plagued by perceived lack of personality and a series of policy U-turns including appointing Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington despite his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein.
The constituency itself presents demographic challenges for Labour: Makerfield's population skews older, whiter (97%, according to available data), and poorer than the rest of Britain. The area has voted Labour for 100 years but has recently shifted toward Reform in a broader pattern of collapsing trust in traditional political parties. A splinter group called Restore Britain, backed by Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk on his X platform, has also gained support among those wanting even stricter border controls.
The Bottom Line
If Burnham wins Thursday's election as polls suggest he will, he says he will trigger a leadership contest against Starmer within the Labour Party. Secure that position and he would become prime minister under UK political rules without needing a general election. This places Makerfield's 100,000 residents in the surprising position of deciding Britain's political future at a time when the country faces stagnant wages, turbulent politics, and racial tensions that erupted in Northern Ireland earlier this month.
Beyond questions of national leadership, residents face immediate local concerns including a 25,000-ton dump of illegal toxic waste in the village of Bickershaw that has been rotting for months, is infested with rats, and has caught fire twice. Nicha Rowson, a 34-year-old beautician living nearby who described living through "a living hell" due to smells and vermin, said she intends to vote for Burnham because "before this we were being ignored and not listened to by authorities." Whether the election produces the change in national direction that voters seek remains to be seen.