Americans have shown little hesitancy about betting on the World Cup, the weather in Dallas and the next James Bond through prediction markets. Yet for many, politics is a step too far.
Results from The POLITICO Poll show that 44% of U.S. adults believe wagering on political events such as what President Donald Trump will say, who he will pardon, and the outcome of the 2028 presidential election should be illegal. A similar share of respondents voiced concern about betting on presidential statements and pardons.
The prediction markets have grown rapidly in recent years after a federal judge ruled weeks before Election Day 2024 that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission could not block Kalshi from offering election wagers. Under Trump and new CFTC Chair Michael Selig, the agency has adopted a friendlier posture toward the industry.
What the Right Is Saying
Prediction market proponents on the right argue that politically focused bets serve as a valuable source of information by offering a wisdom-of-the-crowds lens on the news of the day. Supporters say these markets help consumers, corporations and small businesses offset financial risk associated with changes in administration or law.
"These markets are not for everybody," said John Aristotle Phillips, who leads the election-centric prediction market platform PredictIt. "People are going to object to certain areas, and they're going to be somewhat sanguine about others."
In a statement, Polymarket Deputy Chief Legal Officer Olivia Chalos said prediction markets have become "a foundational source of real-time information and forecasting, providing real-time probability signals across politics, sports, culture, economics, and current events to anyone seeking market information about future outcomes." Chalos added that the company operates a U.S.-regulated venue subject to the same rules as other major financial exchanges.
Industry advocates contend that prediction markets represent a legitimate form of financial speculation protected under existing regulatory frameworks and that concerns about democratic integrity are overstated given the relatively small size of political betting compared to traditional financial markets.
What the Left Is Saying
Sen. Jeff Merkley, a Democrat from Oregon, told POLITICO that allowing election betting enables affluent individuals to wager millions of dollars while potentially affecting outcomes through dark money. "That type of corruption in our elections is deadly," Merkley said.
Critics on the left have argued that politically focused betting markets risk staining American democracy by allowing wealthy interests to exert financial influence over electoral outcomes. The $700 million already traded on 2028 presidential election markets from Kalshi and Polymarket's international platform has intensified these concerns.
Progressive advocacy groups have pointed to the concentration of prediction market trading among Wall Street firms, day traders and political operatives as evidence that ordinary voters could be disadvantaged by markets they view as opaque or unfair.
What the Numbers Show
The POLITICO Poll, conducted by independent U.K.-based polling firm Public First, found that 44% of Americans believe election outcome betting should be illegal. More than 50% of respondents said they would not consider placing a bet on a prediction market.
Younger Americans show more openness to these markets. Among those aged 18 to 24, 12% reported having placed a prediction-market wager, identical to the rate for those aged 25 to 34. By comparison, just 6% of all respondents had done so. Thirty percent of 18- to 24-year-olds said they would consider placing such a bet, compared to 17% of the total group.
Nearly $700 million has traded on the 2028 presidential election markets from Kalshi and Polymarket combined. Major media partnerships with CNN, The Wall Street Journal's publisher Dow Jones and Major League Baseball have boosted visibility for prediction market platforms, which now boast valuations measured in tens of billions of dollars.
Sports betting accounts for most trading activity on prediction markets today, representing the bulk of volume even as political wagering has drawn significant media attention.
The Bottom Line
The poll results suggest that while prediction markets have gained traction among traders and financial interests, they remain controversial with the broader American public when applied to politics. The split between widespread acceptance of sports and entertainment betting versus resistance to election-related wagers highlights a potential fault line as these platforms seek regulatory approval and mainstream legitimacy.
Lawmakers like Merkley have signaled interest in examining the intersection of prediction markets and electoral integrity, though no legislation has advanced. Industry participants are likely to continue building partnerships and lobbying for favorable regulatory treatment under the Trump administration's CFTC leadership.