The U.S. fertility rate reached a record low in 2025, with 53.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44, according to data released earlier this year by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That represents a decline of roughly 23% from 2007 levels, when the rate stood at approximately 69 births per 1,000 women in that age group.

The CDC's state-by-state analysis covering 2007 through 2020 — the most recent complete data set available — shows every state experienced a fertility rate decrease among women aged 15-44. Arizona and Utah saw the sharpest declines, with drops exceeding 30%. Arizona's rate fell from 82.39 per 1,000 in 2007 to 53.85 in 2020, while Utah declined from 95.52 to 63.95 over the same period.

Researchers have identified multiple factors contributing to the sustained decline. The late-2000s recession drove a roughly 7% drop between 2007 and 2010, according to CDC data. The COVID-19 pandemic produced an additional 5% decline between 2020 and 2025. A working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research suggests technological changes — specifically the rollout of Apple's iPhone starting in 2007 — may account for one-third to one-half of the fertility decline observed through 2011, with particularly pronounced effects among women under 25.

What the Right Is Saying

Conservative analysts and Republican lawmakers have emphasized different factors, including cultural shifts and lifestyle preferences rather than purely economic causes. The Heritage Foundation's demographic research director, Dr. Mark Janes, wrote in an analysis that 'the fertility decline predates many of today's economic programs' and reflects 'changes in how Americans view family formation itself.'

Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio, who has spoken frequently about demographic concerns, argued that policy should support family formation but cautioned against expansive government programs. 'We need to create conditions where families can thrive, not trap people in dependency,' Vance said at a Policy Summit last month.

Several Republican-led states have pursued more targeted approaches to supporting families. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed legislation this year expanding tax credits for families with children, arguing the measure addresses fertility concerns without creating new federal entitlements.

What the Left Is Saying

Democratic lawmakers and progressive advocacy groups have pointed to economic barriers as a primary driver of declining birth rates. Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal said in a recent statement that 'the cost of raising children has become prohibitive for millions of American families,' citing childcare expenses, housing costs, and lack of paid family leave.

Senator Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, who has championed family-friendly legislation, argued that federal policy has failed to keep pace with the economic realities facing young Americans. 'When a couple decides they cannot afford to have children, that's not a personal choice — it's a policy failure,' Duckworth said at a Senate hearing earlier this year.

Organizations including the Center for American Progress have called for expanded child tax credits, universal pre-K access, and federally mandated paid parental leave as measures to reverse demographic trends. A CAP report published in 2025 estimated that comprehensive family support policies could increase birth rates by 10-15% over a decade.

What the Numbers Show

The CDC data reveals stark geographic variation in fertility decline rates:

All 50 states and Washington D.C. experienced decreases between 2007 and 2020 — no state recorded an increase during that period.

Arizona (-34.6%) and Utah (-33.1%) saw the largest percentage declines, though both remained above the national average in 2020.

North Dakota experienced the smallest decline at just 2.34%, falling from 68.87 to 67.26 per 1,000 women.

New Mexico (-28%), Nevada (-28.3%), and Oregon (-29.7%) all recorded declines of at least 28%.

Only three states — Pennsylvania, Alabama, and Michigan — had decreases of less than 11%.

In 2007, Utah, Idaho (82.83), and Arizona led the nation in fertility rates. By 2020, only Utah remained among the top 10 states.

Recent surveys indicate shifting public sentiment: more than half of American adults now believe having children would negatively impact the country's future, according to polling conducted by the Brookings Institution. Another survey found that cost concerns ranked as the primary reason younger Americans cite for delaying or foregoing parenthood.

The Bottom Line

The sustained decline in U.S. fertility rates presents both economic and policy challenges. A shrinking birth rate affects Social Security funding projections, workforce availability, and long-term economic growth forecasts, according to Congressional Budget Office analyses.

President Trump signed an executive order earlier this year establishing a federal working group on fertility benefits and launching the mothers.gov resource portal. The administration has framed declining birth rates as an economic security issue requiring government attention.

What remains unclear is whether recent policy initiatives will reverse decades of demographic decline. Experts from both parties note that other developed nations with similar family support programs have also experienced below-replacement fertility rates, suggesting the phenomenon extends beyond domestic policy choices. Researchers at Pew Charitable Trusts estimate it would take a sustained 20% increase in birth rates to return to replacement-level fertility — a threshold no major industrialized nation has achieved in recent decades.