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Economy & Markets

Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, Warsh Breaks With Colleagues on Projections

Inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2 percent in May amid energy shocks from the Iran war, complicating the central bank's rate decisions.

⚡ The Bottom Line

The Fed's unanimous vote to hold rates steady demonstrates institutional independence in the early days of Warsh's chairmanship, even as Trump has publicly expressed a desire for lower rates. Hassett's clarification that Warsh is not seeking White House advice on monetary policy underscores the traditional separation between fiscal and monetary authorities. With inflation remaining above the Fe...

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National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Monday that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is not soliciting advice from the White House on monetary policy, despite their decades-long friendship.

"We're very close friends," Hassett said on CNBC's "Squawk Box." "We've known each other for 30 years. ... We definitely talk. But he's not asking the White House for advice [on] what to do with interest rates."

Last Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to hold interest rates steady at its first meeting of Warsh's term as Fed chair. The committee maintained its baseline interest rate at a range of 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent.

Warsh succeeded former Fed Chair Jerome Powell last month. Powell remains on the central bank's board of governors and is one of 12 voting members of the FOMC.

What the Right Is Saying

Conservative commentators and some administration allies argue that Trump has been appropriately restrained in his approach to the central bank, pointing to his recent comments on NBC's "Meet the Press" as evidence.

"Kevin is fantastic, and I want him to do whatever he wants," Trump told host Kristen Welker. "I don't want to have a big influence on him."

Hassett echoed this sentiment Monday, praising Warsh for organizing the Fed with new procedures and inspection of old models. "He made a huge amount of progress regarding how he will improve the central bank so that we never get back to a situation where the Fed's not moving and we got 9 percent inflation," Hassett told host Joe Kernen.

What the Left Is Saying

Progressive economists and some Democratic lawmakers have long argued that the White House should not exert pressure on the Federal Reserve's independent monetary policy decisions. They view the Fed's structure as essential to maintaining credibility in financial markets.

Some analysts note that despite Trump's public statements urging rate cuts, the FOMC has maintained its independence under Warsh so far. The unanimous vote to hold rates signals a commitment to data-driven decision-making, they argue, regardless of political pressure.

"The Fed's ability to act independently is foundational to dollar stability and inflation control," one progressive economic policy group wrote in a recent analysis. "Any appearance of coordination between the White House and the Fed could undermine market confidence."

What the Numbers Show

The FOMC decision came as inflation remains elevated. Consumer prices rose 4.2 percent year over year in May, hitting a three-year high amid energy shocks due to the war in Iran. In February, annual inflation stood at 2.4 percent.

Nine FOMC officials projected at least one rate hike this year in the committee's quarterly Summary of Economic Projections. Eight officials said rates will remain steady through 2026, while one predicted a sole rate cut.

Warsh was the only FOMC official not to provide a projection for interest rate activity this year. "When all the financial markets are doing is reflecting back what we've said, then we're taking the most important source of information and we're being blind to it," Warsh told reporters during his post-meeting press conference.

Trump had frequently criticized Powell for not backing rate cuts last year before the FOMC voted to lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at each of its final three meetings of 2025.

The Bottom Line

The Fed's unanimous vote to hold rates steady demonstrates institutional independence in the early days of Warsh's chairmanship, even as Trump has publicly expressed a desire for lower rates. Hassett's clarification that Warsh is not seeking White House advice on monetary policy underscores the traditional separation between fiscal and monetary authorities.

With inflation remaining above the Fed's 2 percent target and geopolitical energy shocks continuing to pressure prices, Warsh faces the challenge of balancing economic growth concerns with price stability. His decision to stop providing rate projections sets him apart from his predecessors and signals a potential shift in how the central bank communicates its policy intentions. Markets will be watching closely for signs of whether the Fed can maintain its independence amid ongoing political attention to interest rates.

Sources