Bill Maher, the HBO host of "Real Time with Bill Maher," said Sunday that Democrats are at risk of losing ground in November's midterm elections following last week's primary results and a recent Supreme Court ruling on congressional redistricting.
Three Democratic candidates who have described themselves as democratic socialists won competitive primary contests in New York City congressional districts: Darializa Avila Chevalier, state Assemblywoman Claire Valdez, and former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander. The victories came during last Tuesday's primary elections.
"So, how are they gonna blow it? I don't know but they seem to be well on their way," Maher said at a Washington, D.C., event before accepting the Mark Twain Prize for American Humor at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts.
Maher had previously said two months ago that Democrats were positioned to gain seats in 2026. He cited two developments that changed his assessment: an April Supreme Court decision in Louisiana v. Callais, which found congressional districts in Louisiana had been illegally racially gerrymandered, and the socialist primary wins in New York.
"I did say that, it was about two months ago, and you see how quickly the news changes," Maher said at the event.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative critics argue the primary results expose a significant ideological divide within the Democratic Party that could cost it seats in November.
Longtime Democratic strategist James Carville told Fox News' Kayleigh McEnany that he did not believe congressional Democrats should seat Avila Chevalier as a member of the party. "She actually describes herself as a democratic socialist," Carville said. "I don't have anything in common with someone that says that they're against interracial dating or doesn't want to have any incarceration for convicted felons."
Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., who has occasionally broken with his party on cultural issues, criticized the candidates' positions on social media. "Anti-Israel. Anti-America. Anti-Western Civilization," he wrote on X. "Why am I the only Democrat in the U.S. Senate that refuses to excuse this or defend any of those self-identified communists?"
Republican National Committee spokesperson Emma Greene said the results demonstrate what Republicans have long argued about Democratic Party leadership. "This is exactly what we expected when Democrats pushed far-left policies that alienate mainstream voters," she said.
Conservative commentators argue that candidates calling for police department abolition and open borders positions will struggle in general elections, particularly in swing districts that determine control of Congress.
"General election voters in purple states are not going to support candidates who want to abolish law enforcement," one conservative columnist wrote. "This is how you lose the House."
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive Democrats and supporters of the three winning candidates point to their electoral success as evidence of shifting Democratic Party priorities. Avila Chevalier and Valdez ran on platforms calling for defunding police departments and abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement, positions that have gained traction among younger Democratic voters in recent years.
The Democratic Socialists of America, a political organization that has endorsed progressive candidates nationwide, noted that its supported candidates have won competitive elections in historically moderate districts. The group argues this reflects broader voter support for policies like universal healthcare and housing as human rights.
"These victories show the party is moving toward representing working people," DSA said in a statement following the New York results.
Supporters of Lander note he served competently as city comptroller and point to his departure from DSA over disagreements regarding the organization's response to the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel. They argue his policy positions remain mainstream within the Democratic Party despite his past association with socialist groups.
Progressive commentators have pushed back against criticism of the candidates' views, arguing that positions like opposing indefinite incarceration and calling for comprehensive immigration reform reflect significant public support among Democratic primary voters.
"These are the priorities Democratic voters chose. That's how primaries work," one progressive activist wrote on social media following Maher's comments.
What the Numbers Show
The three primary winners collectively received approximately 45 percent of the vote in their respective districts, based on unofficial results reported by the New York City Board of Elections.
Polling from Pew Research Center conducted earlier this year found that 57 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents held favorable views of democratic socialism. However, among all Americans, 53 percent viewed democratic socialism negatively.
The Supreme Court decision in Louisiana v. Callais affects redistricting in a state where Republicans hold six of the state's six congressional seats following recent court-ordered map changes.
Historical data shows the party controlling the White House historically loses an average of 23 House seats in midterm elections, according to data compiled by the American Presidency Project at UC Santa Barbara.
The Bottom Line
The primary results and Maher's comments highlight ongoing tensions within the Democratic Party over its ideological direction heading into November. The three New York winners will face Republican opponents in traditionally Democratic-leaning districts but must first navigate potential challenges from party leadership regarding seating assignments if they win.
Republicans are likely to feature these candidates' positions prominently in fall campaigns, arguing that mainstream voters will reject what they characterize as far-left policies. Democrats face a strategic question about whether to embrace or distance themselves from their party's progressive wing in competitive districts.
The outcome of the November elections will test whether progressive primary winners can expand their appeal beyond party activists or whether Republicans can successfully nationalize local races around cultural issues that have animated conservative voters since 2020.