Republican candidates Vivek Ramaswamy and Sen. Jon Husted are both trailing their Democratic opponents by narrow margins in Ohio, according to a new AARP poll released Monday. The survey of 800 likely voters found Ramaswamy, the former Republican presidential candidate running for governor, down 47 percent to 44 percent against Democrat Amy Acton. In the Senate race, Husted trails former Sen. Sherrod Brown by three points, 48 percent to 45 percent.
Both contests fall within the poll's margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, making them competitive heading into the election cycle. The polling was conducted June 14-16 by the bipartisan team Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic strategists are pointing to the generational divide in the polls as a sign that Acton and Brown connect with younger voters on kitchen-table issues. Acton, who served as director of the Ohio Department of Health under Republican Gov. Mike DeWine during the COVID-19 pandemic, leads Ramaswamy by 24 points among likely voters under 50. Brown's 22-point advantage among the same age group mirrors that lead.
Progressives argue that independent voters are breaking decisively toward their candidates. Acton holds a 26-point lead among independents, while Brown leads Husted by 28 points with this crucial voting bloc. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a statement calling the numbers evidence that 'Ohioans are rejecting Trump-style Republican economics' in favor of candidates focused on protecting Social Security and expanding healthcare access.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans counter that the poll reveals resilience among older voters, who historically turn out at higher rates. Ramaswamy leads Acton by 10 points among voters 50 and older, while Husted holds an 8-point edge over Brown in the same demographic. The Republican National Committee pointed to these numbers as proof their candidates can win if senior turnout matches historical patterns.
Ramaswamy's campaign issued a statement arguing that the race remains 'within striking distance' and highlighted his business background as a contrast to career politicians. Husted's team emphasized his legislative experience, noting he has 'delivered results for Ohio families across party lines.' The National Republican Senatorial Committee called Brown's 2024 loss to Sen. Bernie Moreno proof that 'voters are ready for new conservative leadership in the Senate.'
What the Numbers Show
The poll shows both races as statistical dead heats within the margin of error. Ramaswamy trails Acton 44-47, while Husted lags Brown 45-48.
Generational divide defines both contests: Among voters under 50, Acton leads Ramaswamy by 24 points (58-34) and Brown leads Husted by 22 points (57-35). Among voters 50 and older, the Republican candidates lead by smaller margins—Ramaswamy by 10 points (52-42) and Husted by 8 points (51-43).
Independent voters favor Democrats by wide margins: Acton leads Ramaswamy among independents 54-28, while Brown leads Husted 56-28. The poll surveyed 800 likely Ohio voters with a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points.
Ohio's median age ranks in the top half of states nationally according to U.S. Census Bureau data, making senior voter turnout particularly consequential in determining outcomes.
The Bottom Line
Both Ohio races remain highly competitive with neither candidate holding an advantage outside the poll's margin of error. The outcome likely hinges on whether younger voters turn out in greater numbers than usual for an off-year election, or whether older voters—historically reliable participants—maintain their typical midterm participation rates.
Social Security and Medicare are emerging as central issues after the Trump administration's report showed the entitlement program faces benefit cuts within seven years without legislative action. That projection may resonate particularly with Ohio's above-average senior population and could boost Republican turnout, which Republicans argue gives them a structural advantage in the race.