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Economy & Markets

Nasdaq Falls After June Hiring Report Misses Expectations

Technology stocks led declines as investors weighed signs of slowing labor market growth against broader economic data.

⚡ The Bottom Line

The June hiring miss introduces a new variable into ongoing debates about Federal Reserve policy and economic trajectory. Markets are pricing in increased chances of rate cuts later this year, which would typically be supportive of growth stocks but could signal concern about slower economic expansion. Investors will next look to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony next week for a...

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The Nasdaq Composite fell on Thursday as a June jobs report showed hiring came in below analyst expectations, raising questions about the pace of economic growth and prompting investors to reassess positions across technology and growth-oriented sectors.

According to preliminary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payroll additions for June totaled fewer than the 185,000 jobs economists had forecast. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.1 percent, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent month-over-month, in line with expectations.

Technology stocks bore the brunt of early selling pressure, with the Nasdaq shedding roughly 1.2 percent by mid-afternoon trading. Semiconductor shares and software companies were among the hardest hit, reversing gains from the prior session.

The report arrives amid ongoing debate in Washington over Federal Reserve policy. Policymakers have signaled they are closely monitoring labor market data as they consider their next moves on interest rates.

What the Right Is Saying

Conservative economists viewed the weaker-than-expected hiring as potentially easing inflation pressures that have concerned Republicans in Congress. Senator John Thune of South Dakota said the report 'gives the Fed more room to maneuver on rates, which is welcome news for businesses trying to plan ahead.'

Fiscal conservatives argued the data should reinforce calls for reducing government spending. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget issued a statement saying June hiring 'falls short of what we need to see to sustain growth without adding to our debt.'

Market commentators aligned with Republican priorities emphasized that technology sector valuations remain elevated despite broader economic uncertainty. 'Investors may finally be taking a harder look at multiples,' wrote Kevin McCarthy in an analysis piece. 'The easy money era in tech stocks may be over.'

What the Left Is Saying

Progressive economists argued that the jobs report should reinforce calls for continued government spending to support economic demand. Representative Pramila Jayapal of Washington said in a post on social media that the data 'underscores why we cannot cut essential programs while workers are still finding it hard to get ahead.'

Labor advocates pointed to wage growth as evidence that workers retain some bargaining power despite slower hiring. The Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning research organization, noted that average hourly earnings have risen 3.8 percent over the past year when adjusted for inflation.

Some analysts aligned with Democratic priorities cautioned against reading too much into one month of data. 'One report does not make a trend,' wrote Jared Bernstein, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers in a commentary. 'The labor market remains resilient by most measures.'

What the Numbers Show

June nonfarm payrolls: approximately 165,000 jobs added (analyst consensus had been 185,000)

Unemployment rate: 4.1 percent

Average hourly earnings: +0.3 percent month-over-month, +3.8 percent year-over-year

Labor force participation: 62.6 percent

Nasdaq Composite daily performance: down approximately 1.2 percent in afternoon trading

The Fed's benchmark interest rate target range stands at 5.25 to 5.50 percent following eleven increases between March 2022 and July 2023. Futures markets have priced in roughly even odds of a quarter-point cut at the September policy meeting, according to CME Group data.

Technology sector valuations, as measured by the Nasdaq's price-to-earnings ratio, remain above their five-year historical average despite recent volatility. The index is up approximately 8 percent year-to-date through Wednesday's close.

The Bottom Line

The June hiring miss introduces a new variable into ongoing debates about Federal Reserve policy and economic trajectory. Markets are pricing in increased chances of rate cuts later this year, which would typically be supportive of growth stocks but could signal concern about slower economic expansion.

Investors will next look to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony next week for additional signals about the central bank's thinking. Quarterly earnings season begins in earnest mid-July, when major technology companies including Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet report results.

The labor market remains a key swing vote in determining whether the economy achieves a 'soft landing'—bringing down inflation without triggering a recession—or faces further headwinds heading into the fall.

Sources