A new report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies warns that Russia has used its shadow fleet of sanction-busting ships as mobile platforms to launch drones near European military and nuclear installations, testing NATO air defenses across more than a dozen allied countries. The study documents 144 suspected drone incidents between August 2024 and February 2026 at sites in Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Denmark, and over American air bases in the UK.
The report links Russian shadow fleet vessels to high-profile drone sightings, including an incident on January 3, 2025, when the Arctica sailed along the Danish coast while 20 drones flew over the port of Koege. On September 22, Copenhagen Airport closed after drone sightings; the IISS found several shadow ships, including the Arctica and Boracay, in the area at the time. The campaign peaked in late 2025, forcing temporary closures of airports in Germany, Spain, and Denmark.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservatives and their allied defense analysts argue that Russia's shadow fleet drone campaign exposes both adversary aggression and gaps in European air defense readiness. They note Sweden as the only European nation to directly accuse Moscow, pointing to a drone launched from a Russian spy ship near a French aircraft carrier.
Defense hawks say the incidents reveal vulnerabilities that must be addressed through accelerated procurement of counter-drone systems and stronger sanctions enforcement against Russia's shadow fleet. Some Republican foreign policy voices argue the probing campaign is designed not just for espionage but to impose psychological costs on European populations, with Ret. Lt. Gen. Hodges stating: "It's a combination of espionage... But also psychologically to create a lot of anxiety in populations to scare them so that they would put pressure on their governments not to support Ukraine."
Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied the accusations, telling reporters: "What's the point of all this. Name even one proven fact." Some conservative analysts note the deniability created by using commercial shadow fleet vessels rather than official Russian military assets makes attribution diplomatically complex.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive Democrats and their allied national security advocates argue that Russia's drone probing campaign represents a serious escalation requiring increased NATO defense investments and unified allied responses. Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, who served as commanding general of US Army Europe until 2018, told Fox News: "There's no doubt in my mind that the Russians are using the shadow fleet vessels as a platform to get different types of drones in closer to various European countries."
Elisabeth Braw of the Atlantic Council said the campaign is designed to test allied responses comprehensively. "Whoever is doing it is testing the reaction of the authorities, is testing how the public will respond, will they panic, will they blame their politicians and the authorities," she said. "Also they are testing perhaps to see how we as European countries or how European countries might react in a real crisis there."
Defense analysts argue the incidents targeting bases where US B61-12 nuclear gravity bombs are thought to be stationed, including sites in the Netherlands and Belgium, represent potential probing of alliance nuclear deterrence vulnerabilities. Progressive security advocates say this underscores the need for robust funding of NATO's eastern flank defenses and enhanced drone detection capabilities.
What the Numbers Show
The IISS report documents 144 suspected drones near sensitive sites between August 2024 and February 2026, including over American air bases in the UK in November 2024. Germany recorded more than 1,000 suspicious drone sightings in 2025 alone, concentrated over defense companies and military bases where Ukrainian soldiers were training. The incidents affected airspace over a dozen NATO member states plus Ireland.
Targeted sites include France's ballistic-missile submarine base at Île Longue and bases in the Netherlands and Belgium where US B61-12 nuclear gravity bombs are thought to be stationed. Drones appeared in patterns designed to avoid operator location, with lights suggesting testing of security responses, according to the report. The incidents forced repeated closures of major commercial aviation hubs and disrupted military operations.
Unexplained drone sightings have also occurred over US military installations, including 17 consecutive days of unauthorized aircraft at Virginia's Joint Base Langley-Eustis in December 2023, prompting the Pentagon to bring in specialized assets including a NASA WB-57 high-altitude jet. Similar incidents occurred near Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana in March.
The Bottom Line
The IISS report provides detailed documentation suggesting Russia's shadow fleet vessels serve as mobile launch platforms for drones probing NATO defenses across Europe. The campaign appears designed to test response times, identify vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure, and normalize low-level airspace violations that stay below thresholds likely to trigger direct military retaliation.
NATO allies preparing to meet in Turkey have added drone warfare and Russian testing of alliance responses to their agenda. Sweden's direct accusation against Moscow remains the exception rather than the norm among European nations. The report raises questions about whether current NATO air defense doctrines and counter-drone capabilities are adequate for a threat environment that exploits deniability while systematically mapping allied vulnerabilities. Watch for whether allies agree on new attribution protocols or enhanced countermeasures when they convene.