Republican officials in Alaska are calling former teacher and current Senate candidate Dan Sullivan a "sham" candidate who they say is deliberately splitting the conservative vote to benefit Democrats, while supporters in his hometown of Fairbanks describe a different man entirely — one who spent two decades teaching middle school civics before entering politics.
The Alaska Republican Party formally endorsed Sullivan's primary opponent last month and released a statement accusing Sullivan of coordinating with outside Democratic groups. "This is a transparent attempt by the left to divide our coalition," Alaska GOP Chairwoman Janet Holbrook said in that statement, which has not been independently verified as accurate coordination.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive groups and Democratic officials have largely remained quiet about Sullivan, neither endorsing him nor attacking his candidacy. Some Democrats have quietly acknowledged that Sullivan's entry into the race could complicate their own nominee's path to victory in a state that has leaned Republican in recent cycles.
Alaska Democratic Party spokesperson Maria Reyes said her party is focused on its own candidate and declined to comment on whether Sullivan would be preferable to the GOP nominee. "We are running our own race," Reyes said, without elaborating further on strategy.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative groups have been more vocal in their opposition to Sullivan, who served three terms in the Alaska House of Representatives before launching his Senate bid as an independent after losing the Republican primary.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee sent a memo to reporters this week calling Sullivan "a wolf in sheep's clothing" and arguing that his independent status is a "calculated political move." The memo included what it described as Sullivan's voting record from his time in the state legislature, suggesting he had aligned with Democrats on several key budget votes.
Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy, who endorsed Sullivan's primary opponent, said at a campaign event that voters should be "very suspicious" of Sullivan's party switch. "Alaskans know me and they know what I stand for," Dunleavy said, according to local news reports. "They don't know what Dan will do once he's in Washington."
What the Numbers Show
Alaska's Senate race is one of 12 contests that will determine control of the chamber, where Republicans currently hold a 51-49 majority. The Cook Political Report rates this seat as "Lean Republican," though that rating was issued before Sullivan's candidacy became a factor.
Sullivan earned 34 percent of the vote in the August primary, finishing second to the GOP nominee who received 42 percent. Under Alaska's ranked-choice voting system used for general elections, any candidate who receives more than 50 percent after second-choice votes are counted wins outright.
A Fairbanks polling firm conducted a survey of 600 likely voters last week (this poll has not been peer-reviewed or published). It showed Sullivan's Democratic opponent leading with 38 percent support, followed by the Republican at 34 percent and Sullivan at 18 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The Bottom Line
The race represents a test case for how Alaska's ranked-choice voting system handles what both parties describe as an unexpected candidacy. Republicans argue Sullivan's presence hands victory to Democrats; his supporters say he offers voters a moderate alternative to partisan extremes.
Sullivan is expected to file his formal candidacy paperwork next week, which will trigger official monitoring by the Federal Election Commission. The general election is scheduled for November, with early voting beginning in October.