Prediction market users have wagered more than $197 million on midterm election outcomes, according to an NBC News analysis published Friday. The report examined 1,408 open markets on two platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, which allow users to bet on a range of topics including sports, global events and political elections.
The surge in political prediction market activity comes as both platforms have expanded their offerings ahead of the November midterm elections. Users can place bets on outcomes ranging from individual congressional races to broader questions about party control of Congress.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic lawmakers and consumer advocacy groups have raised concerns about the growth of political betting markets. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts said prediction markets for elections could undermine democratic participation by treating voting as a financial instrument rather than civic duty.
Progressive watchdogs argue that these platforms may disproportionately attract wealthy participants seeking to profit from political outcomes, potentially skewing the information these markets provide. Organizations including Public Citizen have called for greater regulatory scrutiny of election-related betting products.
"When you turn elections into a gambling product, you're sending a message that politics is about making money rather than representation," said David Rosen, a researcher at the Economic Policy Institute, in comments to NBC News.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservatives and free-market advocates view prediction markets as valuable information aggregation tools that can forecast electoral outcomes more accurately than traditional polling. Supporters argue these platforms represent a legitimate form of market expression protected by economic freedom principles.
"Prediction markets have proven their forecasting value over decades," said Thomas Miller, a professor at Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management who has studied the platforms. "The money flowing into these markets reflects genuine information about voter intentions."
Republican political operatives note that prediction markets operate within existing legal frameworks and provide transparency about collective expectations for election outcomes.
What the Numbers Show
NBC News analyzed 1,408 open markets across Kalshi and Polymarket. Combined wagers exceeded $197 million on midterm-related predictions. The platforms collectively offer contracts on more than 400 individual House and Senate races, along with broader questions about overall congressional control.
Kalshi, which is registered as a designated contract market with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, processed significant volume on competitive races including contests in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia. Polymarket, operating under different regulatory structures, has attracted users internationally.
Traditional polling averages show both parties competitive in Senate races requiring Democrats to defend 23 seats compared to 12 for Republicans.
The Bottom Line
The $197 million wagered on midterm elections reflects the growing intersection of financial markets and political prediction. Both platforms operate under different regulatory frameworks, raising questions about oversight consistency. Regulators continue to examine whether existing rules adequately address election-related derivatives. Election security experts note that while these markets are distinct from voting infrastructure, their growth represents a new dimension in how Americans engage with electoral outcomes financially.