The Senate returns this week from a more than two-week recess facing a compressed legislative calendar and a narrower Republican majority following the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. The chamber must navigate nominations for top administration posts, government funding deadlines and renewed military action in Iran while managing its slimmed margin.
Graham's death reduces the GOP conference to 52 senators, compared to 47 Democrats and one independent. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., will need near-unanimous Republican support to advance Trump's agenda on legislation requiring 60 votes, while also keeping defections minimal on party-line matters.
"We really empower the Democrats to have a reason to be able to stop stuff that otherwise they would probably have to vote for," Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., told Fox News Digital regarding attaching controversial measures to must-pass bills. "They found that this can be an Achilles heel for Republicans because, as soon as we attach it to any kind of bill, they know the votes aren't there."
What the Right Is Saying
Senate Republicans say they remain committed to advancing Trump's legislative priorities despite the reduced majority. The SAVE America Act, Trump's flagship election integrity legislation, faces fresh obstacles as Graham's seat remains vacant. Trump has pushed to attach the bill to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), a move Republican senators fear would cost Democratic votes needed for that must-pass military funding authorization.
"As soon as we attach it to any kind of bill, they know the votes aren't there because, at a 60-vote margin, they'll never get us the votes," Rounds said. Republicans hope to begin NDAA proceedings in July but worry about hand Democrats leverage if the election bill is added.
On nominations, Jay Clayton will appear before the Senate Intelligence Committee on Wednesday for his confirmation hearing as Director of National Intelligence. The nomination comes after Trump's initial pick, Acting DNI Bill Pulte, drew criticism from both parties over concerns he was unqualified for the position, complicating Congress's efforts to reauthorize Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.
What the Left Is Saying
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Democrats are poised to exploit divisions within the Republican conference. The death of Graham, a prominent foreign policy voice who frequently clashed with progressive priorities on Iran and defense spending, removes a senior negotiating partner from Democratic negotiations.
Democrats have signaled they want to fund the government through regular appropriations but fear the Trump administration may withhold funding for their priorities. Rounds told Fox News that if Democrats refuse appropriations votes, "we'll know pretty well that the political side of the discussion is taking a priority for them." He added that Republicans may need to negotiate a continuing resolution to extend current funding levels past the election.
On nominations, Senate Democrats are watching confirmation hearings this week closely. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche faces the Senate Judiciary Committee, where some Republican skepticism exists. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., told CNN he has a "positive predisposition" toward supporting Blanche but will evaluate him through the nomination process.
What the Numbers Show
The Senate currently operates with a 52-47 Republican majority following Graham's death. Republicans need at least some Democratic support for legislation subject to the 60-vote threshold, including appropriations bills and NDAA.
Trump already refused to sign a bipartisan housing package in protest of stalled SAVE Act progress. The president has also ordered renewed military strikes against Iran over frustrations with ships being stymied in the Strait of Hormuz, actions that drew mixed reactions from lawmakers on both sides who had welcomed a previous temporary agreement pausing hostilities.
"I'm going to go through the nomination process," Tillis told CNN regarding Blanche. "I have got a positive predisposition towards Blanche."
The Bottom Line
The Senate faces a compressed timeline with significant agenda items unresolved. Graham's death amplifies pressure on Thune to maintain Republican unity while navigating Trump's legislative demands and confirmation battles.
Key items to watch include Clayton's confirmation hearing Wednesday, Blanche's appearance before the Judiciary Committee, NDAA negotiations and whether Trump continues linking SAVE Act passage to must-pass legislation. Government funding deadlines loom as the chamber sprints through July into early August.