The National Border Patrol Council, the country's largest union representing federal immigration enforcement agents, has endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, reversing its earlier support for incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary.
In a statement shared with Fox News Digital, Paul Perez, president of the NBPC, said the union is "proud" to endorse Paxton, citing his record of fighting for border security resources and policies that benefit frontline agents.
The endorsement marks a significant shift after Cornyn, a four-term senator who served as Senate Minority Whip during Trump's first term, lost the May primary runoff to Paxton following a last-minute Trump endorsement. Several Republican leaders who backed Cornyn have since rallied behind Paxton, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-N.D., who said he was "all in" for the attorney general.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic candidate James Talarico's campaign pointed to the tight polling as evidence that Texas voters are ready for change. "This race is within reach," a campaign spokesperson told supporters in a fundraising email obtained by Political Bytes. "For the first time, Democrats have a real shot at flipping this seat."
Progressive groups have rallied around Talarico, a 37-year-old former middle school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian who has framed his candidacy as a contrast to Paxton's legal battles and GOP priorities. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has designated the race as a priority contest for the cycle.
Left-leaning political observers note that Cornyn's loss in a traditionally solid red state represents a shift in Texas Republican politics, with some attributing the change to demographic shifts and suburban voters moving away from hardline immigration positions.
What the Right Is Saying
Paxton has dismissed Talarico as out of step with Texas values. "Talarico doesn't belong in Texas," Paxton said at a campaign event. "He fits in California. He does not fit here." Republicans have also highlighted controversial statements attributed to Talarico, including past remarks about gender and religion that party strategists believe could motivate conservative turnout.
Conservative groups argue the polling represents outlier data that will narrow as Election Day approaches. "Polls this far out mean very little," said a spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "Texas has never elected a Democrat to the Senate, and there's no reason to think 2026 will be different."
GOP operatives note that Paxton's aggressive litigation against the Biden administration, including more than 100 lawsuits on issues ranging from immigration to energy policy, resonates with base voters who view federal government overreach as their primary concern.
What the Numbers Show
The New York Times/Siena Survey released in late June shows Paxton and Talarico deadlocked at 47% support among likely Texas voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Talarico raised $27 million during the first quarter of 2026, making him the top Democratic fundraiser in Senate races for that period. His campaign reported having $18 million cash on hand as of June 30.
Texas comprises more than 60% of the U.S. southern border, a factor that makes immigration and border security dominant issues in statewide elections. The state's 38 electoral votes make it the largest prize among states that have not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976.
Cornyn received 42% of the vote in the May primary to Paxton's 52%, forcing the runoff. In Texas, a candidate can win outright by exceeding 50% in the first round; otherwise a runoff is held between the top two finishers.
The Bottom Line
The National Border Patrol Council's reversal signals how quickly Republican politics can shift after Trump's endorsement reshapes primary dynamics. What was once an establishment-versus-insider race ended with Cornyn, who served three terms and chaired the Senate Intelligence Committee, losing to a candidate backed by the former president's late intervention.
The polling suggests Democrats believe they have found their strongest statewide candidate in decades. Flipping a Texas Senate seat would be a significant blow to GOP efforts to retain control of the chamber, where Republicans currently hold a narrow majority.
What happens next: Watch for whether Paxton's campaign shifts its messaging strategy now that he faces a competitive general election rather than a Republican primary audience. Also watch Talarico's ability to fundraise off the polling data and whether national Democrats escalate their investment in the race.