Republicans are signaling that they believe New Hampshire's open Senate seat is in play, launching a new advertisement campaign targeting Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas as former Republican Senator John Sununu works to secure the GOP nomination.
The race for Shaheen's seat represents one of 11 Senate contests this cycle without an incumbent candidate. The vacancy has drawn significant national attention, with both parties recognizing that control of the chamber could once again hinge on a handful of competitive races.
What the Right Is Saying
The National Republican Senatorial Committee launched a general election advertising campaign and accompanying microsite targeting Pappas's voting record. NRSC Regional Press Secretary Samantha Cantrell said in a statement that Republicans view Sununu as better positioned to represent Granite State interests.
"Chris Pappas has put the needs of Chuck Schumer and D.C. Democrats over what is best for Granite Staters every step of the way," Cantrell stated. "While Pappas is a follower, John Sununu is the independent leader New Hampshire needs."
The NRSC advertisement argues that Pappas voted with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi 222 out of 223 times during their overlapping congressional service, framing him as reliably aligned with national Democratic priorities rather than state interests. The ad concludes with messaging positioning Sununu as a problem-solver capable of independent judgment.
Republicans point to New Hampshire's current governing alignment in Concord, where the party controls the governor's office and both legislative chambers, arguing this demonstrates voters' willingness to support Republican candidates at the statewide level. They argue Sununu's prior Senate service gives him name recognition and electoral experience that could translate to a general election victory.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic supporters of Pappas argue that the congressman has built his political career on constituent service and bipartisan engagement in a traditionally moderate state. They point to his work representing New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District as evidence of his ability to navigate divided government.
National Democrats have pointed to internal polling showing Pappas competitive or leading in potential matchups, according to party strategists familiar with the data. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has designated the race as a priority, though it has not yet announced specific spending levels for the general election campaign.
Progressive groups argue that Sununu's business background and family political dynasty, which includes his father former Governor John Sununu Sr. and brother former Representative Toby Sununu, represent establishment Republican interests rather than New Hampshire values. They note that while Sununu served in the Senate from 2003 to 2017, he at times clashed with conservative orthodoxy on issues including climate change and immigration reform.
What the Numbers Show
Campaign finance disclosures released Thursday reveal significant disparities in candidate resources heading into the final stretch of the primary season. Sununu has raised approximately $1.5 million since April, reporting roughly $3 million cash on hand. Republican challenger Scott Brown, the former Massachusetts senator, raised about $279,000 over the same period with $736,000 remaining.
Pappas maintains a substantial financial advantage among general election candidates. The Democratic congressman raised approximately $3.5 million during the latest reporting period and entered the summer with roughly $5.1 million available for the fall campaign, according to Federal Election Commission filings.
Poll averages show Sununu holding a commanding lead over Brown in the Republican primary, with most surveys giving him advantage exceeding 20 percentage points. General election trial heats between Sununu and Pappas show a competitive race, typically within single digits.
Election handicappers differ slightly on their assessments of the general election landscape. The Cook Political Report rates the contest as "Lean Democratic," while Inside Elections rates it even closer at "Tilt Democratic." Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority entering the 2026 cycle.
The Bottom Line
The NRSC's early general election advertising signals Republican confidence in Sununu's nomination prospects and their view of New Hampshire as one of the party's best pickup opportunities this cycle. With Shaheen's retirement creating an open seat, both parties are expected to invest heavily in a race that could determine Senate control.
Pappas enters the general election with superior financial resources, though Republicans note he would face significant pressure to defend his congressional voting record if matched against Sununu. The Democrat's campaign is likely to emphasize bipartisan credentials and local constituent work as counter-framing to Republican attacks tying him to Washington leadership.
Republican strategists are betting that New Hampshire's state-level governing success can translate to a federal victory, while Democrats argue the national political environment and candidate quality will favor their nominee. Voters will weigh these competing arguments beginning with the September primary and continuing through the November general election.