PHOENIX (AP) — U.S. Reps. Andy Biggs and David Schweikert are competing in Arizona's Republican gubernatorial primary, presenting voters with two fundamentally different strategies for rebuilding a party that has lost ground statewide since 2018.
Biggs, who led the conservative Freedom Caucus in Congress, has built his political brand as an uncompromising champion of President Donald Trump's agenda. Schweikert, representing one of the nation's most educated congressional districts, has cultivated an image as a fiscal hawk focused on the federal deficit while taking a more measured approach to intra-party battles.
The race arrives at a critical moment for Arizona Republicans. The party holds neither U.S. Senate seat and has lost the last four gubernatorial elections, with Trump's-backed nominees repeatedly failing in general elections despite winning primaries.
What the Right Is Saying
Biggs supporters argue that Trump's endorsements have proven infallible in Arizona Republican primaries and that the party's past losses stemmed from insufficient commitment to conservative principles rather than ideological excess.
"Stand up for the people," said Michael LoBello, a 79-year-old retiree from Scottsdale who voted for Biggs. "They're forgetting who they represent, and that's the people."
Conservative activists backing Biggs reject comparisons to Kari Lake's 2022 loss, arguing that Arizona's electorate has shifted favorably for Republicans since then. They point to Trump's victory in the state during the 2024 presidential election as evidence that a Trump-aligned nominee can win.
Schweikert's backers counter that his eight successful House campaigns prove he understands how to appeal to independents and moderate Republicans who defect from the party under more extreme nominees. His supporters include voters like Jeff Clark, a retired telecommunications engineer who has been dismayed by the party's embrace of Trump.
"Once they say they're Trump-sponsored and everything, I'm sorry, it's just not going to work," Clark said, though he ultimately sat out the gubernatorial race.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive groups argue that the primary itself illustrates why Republicans struggle in Arizona. State Democratic Party officials point to recent electoral history as evidence that Trump's influence damages Republican candidates in November.
"Every time Republicans nominate a Trump loyalist, they lose statewide," said a spokesperson for the Arizona Democratic Party in a statement. "Kari Lake lost. Blake Masters lost. Mark Finchem lost. The voters of Arizona have made their preference clear."
Democratic strategists note that independents now outnumber registered Democrats in Arizona and argue that candidates untethered from Trump's election denialism perform better with swing voters. They contend Schweikert's willingness to distance himself from the most aggressive MAGA messaging represents a more viable general election candidate.
Critics within Democratic circles also observe that Biggs' history of blocking COVID-19 relief spending and proposing Medicaid elimination could provide potent campaign ammunition if he becomes the nominee against Gov. Katie Hobbs, whom national Democrats view as their most vulnerable incumbent governor.
What the Numbers Show
Since 2018, no Republican backed by Trump's endorsement has lost a primary in Arizona. However, only former Gov. Doug Ducey has won a statewide general election during that period.
In the 2022 midterms, Trump-backed Republican candidates lost all major statewide races: Kari Lake for governor, Blake Masters for Senate, and Mark Finchem for secretary of state. The losses came despite Republicans maintaining a voter registration edge over Democrats in Arizona.
Arizona's current partisan breakdown shows Republicans at approximately 34 percent of registered voters, independents at 32 percent, and Democrats at 30 percent — making the independent vote decisive in statewide contests.
Schweikert has won his congressional district eight times over 16 years despite it trending Democratic. His district is among the wealthiest and most educated in Arizona, characteristics that align with Republican performance patterns elsewhere.
Biggs represents a safely red district in suburban East Valley Phoenix, an area characterized by rapid growth and young families. He never faced a competitive general election campaign during his time in Congress.
The Bottom Line
The primary outcome will test whether Arizona Republicans prioritize loyalty to Trump or electoral viability against Democrats who currently hold both Senate seats and the governorship.
If Biggs wins, Republicans will nominate a candidate whose closest allies include hardline conservatives like those who helped depose House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. If Schweikert prevails, it would signal that at least some Republican voters prefer a more pragmatic approach to winning statewide elections.
Either way, national Democrats have already begun preparing general election strategies, viewing the Arizona governor's race as one of their most competitive in the country. The primary result will determine which version of the Republican Party Arizona voters see in November.