European Union officials and diplomats based in Brussels have weighed in on Sunday's World Cup final between Spain and Argentina, with predictions ranging from comfortable Spanish victories to dramatic penalty shootouts. POLITICO surveyed commissioners, ambassadors, and spokespeople from across the EU bubble ahead of the match scheduled to take place in New Jersey.
The poll reveals a strong preference among European officials for Spain to claim its first World Cup title since 2010, though some acknowledge the challenge posed by Argentina's star player Lionel Messi. The predictions reflect both sporting analysis and, in several cases, open declarations of continental solidarity.
What the Right Is Saying
The majority of European officials predicted Spanish victory. Christophe Hansen, European commissioner for agriculture, forecast that Spain would become "the first country in history to win the World Cup only conceding a single goal on the way," settling on a 2-0 final score. Ignazio Cocchiere, a European Commission official and former professional footballer, selected Spain 2-1 while noting that "the UEFA European champions against the Copa America and World Cup holders" made for an ideal final matchup. He predicted Spanish captain Rodri would be player of the match.
Magnus Brunner, European commissioner for internal affairs and migration, also backed Spain despite joking that "both [teams] almost lost to Austria (just kidding)," attributing his prediction to "the strong historical Austria-Spain connection." Edouard Philippe, former French prime minister and presidential candidate, went furthest in favor of the Europeans with a 3-1 prediction.
What the Left Is Saying
Those backing Argentina emphasize the experience and legacy of the tournament holders. Carrie Budoff Brown, POLITICO Europe's executive editor, predicted a 3-2 victory for Argentina, writing that "Messi pulls it out." Fernando Iglesias, Argentina's ambassador to the EU, offered diplomatic neutrality while suggesting his preference: "May the final be the best, and may the best win the final (I mean: Messi)." Roxana Mînzatu, executive vice president of the European Commission, acknowledged the difficulty of picking a winner, stating she was "looking forward to the Messi-Yamal duel and expecting an exciting match," calling it "too close to call."
What the Numbers Show
Of the twelve predictions collected by POLITICO from EU officials, ten favored Spain while two supported Argentina. The most common margin was 2-0 or 2-1 in Spain's favor. Glenn Micallef, European commissioner for sport, predicted a clean 2-0 Spanish victory. Pieter Jan Kleiweg de Zwaan, the Dutch ambassador to the EU, stated that "Argentina has been so lucky and it has to be a European country," settling on another 2-0 forecast.
One prediction involved a draw resolved by penalties. Paula Pinho, European Commission chief spokesperson, forecasted "1-1 in regulation time, and Spain wins on penalties." Thomas Regnier, a European Commission spokesperson and former professional footballer, predicted Messi's final World Cup goal would come from the penalty spot in a 2-1 Spanish victory.
The Bottom Line
The Brussels bubble's predictions reflect both genuine sporting analysis and an undercurrent of European solidarity as the continent seeks its first World Cup winner since France claimed the title in 2018. Spain enters the final as UEFA Euro 2024 champions, while Argentina holds the Copa America title and is the defending World Cup champion from 2022.
The match is scheduled to take place Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The contrast between Spanish youth sensation Lamine Yamal and Argentine veteran Messi has emerged as a central narrative leading into the final.