Democrats could vote as early as this week on the order of their primary calendar for the 2028 presidential election, with a key committee set to meet in Washington on Friday to make an initial determination, according to two people familiar with the party's process.
The Rules and Bylaws Committee has been holding monthly meetings as it considers which states will go first in the Democratic primaries. The panel has heard presentations from a dozen states seeking to kick off the nominating contest, including Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. However, any decision made by the committee would not be final until the full Democratic National Committee approves it at its August meeting.
What the Left Is Saying
South Carolina's Democratic leaders have pushed aggressively for the state to reprise its role as the party's first-in-the-nation contest holder. In May, they argued before the Rules and Bylaws Committee that South Carolina best represents the initial playing field for presidential candidates to build winning coalitions. The state's push has included lobbying efforts and securing buy-in from Democratic Party chairs in five Southern states.
The argument centers on demographics. About 25% of South Carolina's population is Black and approximately 9% is Hispanic, according to Census Bureau data—figures that supporters say make the state more representative of the broader Democratic electorate than traditional early-voting states. President Joe Biden led a similar DNC effort in the 2023-2024 cycle to elevate South Carolina after what he called the state's pivotal role in his own path to the nomination.
Rep. Jim Clyburn, South Carolina's lone congressional Democrat and for years the highest-ranking Black Democratic lawmaker in Congress, helped rescue Biden's struggling campaign during the 2020 primary by endorsing him ahead of the state's primary. Biden went on to win a commanding victory there and subsequently secured the presidential nomination. Party leaders point to that history as evidence of South Carolina's importance to Democratic candidates.
What the Right Is Saying
Critics from states facing demotion have pushed back on efforts to sideline Iowa and New Hampshire, arguing they offer valuable early tests of retail politics and retail organizing that larger, more diverse states cannot replicate. Both states have defended their positions as proving grounds for candidates willing to invest in grassroots campaigns.
Some Republican commentators have noted the irony of Democrats repeatedly revising their primary calendar after electoral disappointments, suggesting the party is prioritizing identity politics over regional representation. Others have argued that moving away from Iowa and New Hampshire—states with more homogenous electorates—reflects Democratic Party tensions between its diverse urban base and its rural outreach efforts.
Defenders of the traditional order note that Iowa's caucuses and New Hampshire's primaries have historically allowed lesser-known candidates to compete by organizing directly with voters, skills they argue translate to general election campaigns. The concern is whether larger states with more television markets could effectively replicate retail politicking at scale.
What the Numbers Show
South Carolina: 25% Black population, 9% Hispanic population (Census Bureau). Iowa: 88% white, according to Census data. New Hampshire: 89% non-Hispanic white. Nevada: approximately 29% Latino, 10% Black, but has faced criticism from some Democrats about caucus logistics. Michigan: 14% Black, 6% Hispanic—diverse but a larger state requiring more campaign infrastructure.
In the 2020 cycle, Iowa's Democratic caucus descended into days of uncertainty due to reporting failures, eroding confidence in the state's ability to host first-in-the-nation contests. The party subsequently moved South Carolina to the front for 2024 after Nevada and New Hampshire disputed their positions following changes to the calendar.
The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee is composed of approximately 30 members appointed by the chair and party leaders, with decisions requiring procedural votes before advancing to the full committee for ratification.
The Bottom Line
This week's vote represents an early step in a multi-month process that will ultimately determine which states get preferential positioning in the 2028 Democratic primary. South Carolina has emerged as the front-runner based on its recent track record and demographic arguments, but Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and Michigan remain in active contention.
The final calendar won't be set until August when the full DNC votes. States seeking early positions must still clear procedural hurdles and build coalition support among committee members. What happens with the Democratic calendar could also influence Republican planning, as both parties occasionally coordinate to avoid conflicting primary dates that suppress turnout.