Despite American export controls designed to cut Huawei off from the world's most advanced semiconductor technology, China's largest technology company is on track to post a 60% jump in chip revenue this year. Huawei is expected to close 2026 with approximately $12 billion in chip revenue, up from $7.5 billion in 2025, according to analysts cited by multiple news outlets.
The Biden administration imposed escalating restrictions on Huawei beginning in 2019, blacklisting its devices from government use. In 2022, the administration banned sales and imports from the company and halted export licenses to Huawei entirely, citing national security interests. China responded by directing state agencies to purchase hardware, chips, mobile devices, and software from Huawei while pouring over $1 billion in government grants into the company.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive critics of the export control approach argue that the restrictions have inadvertently strengthened China's domestic semiconductor industry rather than weakening it. They point to Huawei's development of the Ascend 910B chip as evidence that China is narrowing the technology gap with American companies faster than anticipated.
Some analysts contend that the controls may have pushed China to accelerate its own research and development efforts out of necessity, creating a more resilient domestic tech sector. "No single company can independently find all the answers along the path of semiconductor evolution," Huawei executive He Tingbo wrote in May when the company announced its new Tau scaling law strategy.
Additionally, some policy experts argue that export controls have limited American chip companies' access to one of the world's largest markets, potentially ceding ground to international competitors who face fewer restrictions.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative lawmakers and national security officials maintain that the export controls have achieved their core objective of slowing China's advancement in advanced semiconductors. Rep. John Moolenaar, R-Mich., argued that the restrictions forced China to offshore production and rely on Taiwan for chip manufacturing—something Beijing would prefer to avoid.
"Huawei's only path to meeting China's internal demand has been to illegally procure chips from Taiwan—a humiliation the CCP would prefer to avoid at all costs," Moolenaar wrote in a letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, referring to a shell company China allegedly used to circumvent restrictions.
The Trump administration has continued and expanded those efforts in 2025, blocking dozens of Chinese groups from accessing semiconductors and other technology. The U.S. Department of Commerce stated that export controls restrict "the PRC's ability to obtain advanced computing chips, develop and maintain supercomputers, and manufacture advanced semiconductors."
What the Numbers Show
Huawei's government grants increased significantly following American restrictions: 2.5 billion yuan ($403 million) in 2021, rising to 6.5 billion yuan in 2022 and 7.3 billion yuan in 2023. Grants dipped to 3.9 billion yuan in 2025.
Chip revenue projections show growth from $7.5 billion in 2025 to an estimated $12 billion in 2026—a 60% increase. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, whose company remains the world's largest semiconductor engineering firm, acknowledged Huawei's capabilities: "Huawei is the single most formidable technology company in China," he told the Financial Times earlier this year. "They've conquered every market they've engaged in."
Rep. Moolenaar cited data indicating that "the United States has accumulated roughly 75 percent of the world's AI computing power" as evidence that export controls have limited China's competitive position.
The Bottom Line
The Huawei case illustrates the complex, long-term nature of technology competition between the United States and China. While American officials argue that restrictions have slowed Chinese advancement and forced reliance on foreign production, Huawei's revenue growth suggests Beijing has partially succeeded in building a domestic alternative to American chips.
What happens next will likely depend on whether Huawei's Ascend 910B chip can genuinely compete with Nvidia's offerings in AI applications—a question analysts say remains unanswered. The Trump administration is expected to continue expanding restrictions while monitoring China's response, including potential moves toward Taiwan for advanced manufacturing that Beijing has sought to avoid.