The national homicide rate in the United States continued its historic decline in the first half of 2026, according to a new study, even as eight cities reported year-over-year spikes compared to the same period in 2025. The cities experiencing increases included San Francisco, Dallas, and Norfolk, Virginia, researchers found.
The downward trend builds on momentum from last year, which saw the largest single year-over-year drop in recorded murders and likely produced the lowest murder rate in the United States since 1900, pending final FBI crime statistics for the full year. The findings suggest a sustained reversal of the spike in violent crime that peaked in the mid-2020s.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive advocates and Democratic lawmakers have pointed to community-based violence intervention programs as a driving factor behind declining homicide rates. Groups such as the Cities United network, which works with mayors and police chiefs on anti-violence strategies, have argued that investments in mental health services, job training, and neighborhood stabilization efforts yield better results than purely punitive approaches.
Senator Corey Booker of New Jersey has championed legislation expanding federal funding for community intervention programs, arguing that addressing root causes of violence requires sustained investment in underserved communities. The senator's office pointed to data suggesting that cities participating in federal grant programs for violence interruption saw steeper declines than those relying solely on increased police presence.
Criminal justice reform organizations including the Brennan Center for Justice have noted that declining incarceration rates coinciding with lower homicide numbers challenge assumptions that mass incarceration reduces violent crime. These groups argue the data supports shifting resources toward prevention and rehabilitation over prosecution.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative leaders and law enforcement advocates have credited tougher sentencing laws and increased police funding for contributing to the downward trend. The Fraternal Order of Police, the nation's largest law enforcement organization, has pointed to the return of proactive policing strategies as a factor in reducing violent crime in many jurisdictions.
Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, who has championed the Trump administration's public safety agenda, has highlighted the role of federal support for local police departments. Speaking at a law enforcement conference earlier this year, Scott said that 'when cops have the resources and backing they need, communities become safer,' pointing to grant programs expanded under the current administration.
Some Republican governors have emphasized the connection between border security and domestic crime rates, arguing that reducing drug trafficking and gang activity has contributed to fewer homicides in cities near international borders. The Republican Governors Association has pointed to data from member states as evidence that this approach is working.
What the Numbers Show
The study found that while eight cities saw year-over-year increases in homicide rates during the first half of 2026, the national rate continued its overall downward trajectory. Last year's decline represented the largest single-year percentage drop recorded since reliable nationwide crime statistics began being compiled systematically.
FBI preliminary data suggests the 2025 murder rate likely fell below 4 per 100,000 residents for the first time in over a century. The comparable figure stood at approximately 7 per 100,000 at the peak of the mid-2020s spike. Cities reporting spikes include San Francisco (up approximately 12 percent), Dallas (up roughly 8 percent), and Norfolk, Virginia (up about 15 percent) compared to the first half of 2025.
Community violence intervention programs have received approximately $2 billion in federal funding over the past three years through Department of Justice grants. Research from Johns Hopkins University found that cities implementing comprehensive intervention strategies saw homicide rates decline an average of 20 percent faster than comparable cities relying on traditional enforcement alone, though researchers caution that multiple factors contribute to crime trends.
The Bottom Line
The continued decline in national homicide rates marks a significant shift after the violent crime spike that followed the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the uneven nature of the improvement—with some cities experiencing increases while others see substantial declines—highlights ongoing challenges for law enforcement and public health officials.
Researchers will be watching to see whether the eight cities with rising homicide rates represent temporary fluctuations or the beginning of a reversal in their local trends. Final FBI crime statistics for 2025 are expected later this year, which will provide a more complete picture of nationwide patterns. Policymakers on both sides of the aisle have pointed to the data as evidence supporting their preferred approaches to reducing violent crime.