Three in five Americans believe gas prices in their area have risen by more than they actually have, according to an analysis of new results from The POLITICO Poll. The finding presents both a challenge and an opportunity for candidates heading into this fall's midterm elections.

The poll, conducted July 12-15 by Public First, asked respondents how the price of gas in their area had changed since President Donald Trump took office. More than three-fourths said prices in their local area have gone up. Using pricing data from OPIS, a Dow Jones company that tracks fuel costs, POLITICO compared those perceptions against actual average costs for regular gasoline by zip code.

What the Left Is Saying

Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson said the perception gap benefits his party heading into November. "Three quarters of the country is confronting higher gas prices and feeling it," Ferguson said. "That leaves them very vulnerable to the economic pain and very vulnerable to the economic argument the Democrats are going to make."

The data shows Harris voters were more likely to overestimate price increases than Trump supporters, with 70 percent of Harris voters inflating the change compared to 54 percent of Trump voters. That perception appears tied to broader economic sentiment: 57 percent of Americans say the cost of living is worse than they can remember it being.

"Democrats are highly motivated," said Arizona GOP strategist Barrett Marson, who noted the dynamic favors Democrats as a voting base. "The longer the war goes on, probably the less motivated Republicans will be."

What the Right Is Saying

White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers defended the administration's handling of energy markets and pointed to ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting prices. "President Trump and his energy team anticipated these temporary market disruptions, communicated them openly to the American people, and implemented an aggressive plan to mitigate any impacts," Rogers said.

Marson acknowledged Republicans face a difficult balance as midterm candidates seek to acknowledge voter frustrations without drawing criticism from the president. "How do you feel the pain of your voters without feeling the wrath of Donald Trump?" Marson asked. He called it "a particularly tough dance that many Republican candidates will have to endure for the next three months."

Among Trump supporters themselves, self-identified MAGA Republicans were more likely to underestimate cost increases than non-MAGA Republicans, according to POLITICO's analysis — a dynamic some strategists see as another fracture in the president's coalition.

What the Numbers Show

Roughly one in four Americans say gas in their local area has risen by $3.00 or more per gallon since Trump took office. However, no zip code has actually seen that degree of change on average, according to OPIS data as of early July.

Forty-six percent of all respondents said the change in gas prices will impact how they plan to vote this fall. Of those voters, just under 40 percent said they are considering voting for a different party than they normally would — including 49 percent of MAGA Republicans and 57 percent of non-MAGA Republicans.

The perception gap persisted even when actual prices shifted: POLITICO asked about gas prices in both May, near the peak, and July, when prices had dipped. The results were statistically identical both times.

Those who overestimate gas price increases had more than twice the odds of agreeing that the cost of living is worse than they can remember it being, even after controlling for demographics and their 2024 presidential vote choice.

The Bottom Line

The polling suggests Republicans face a dual challenge heading into November: actual price pressures and voter perceptions that may exceed those realities but drive voting behavior regardless. The data also shows fractures within the Republican coalition itself between MAGA-aligned voters and others.

With nearly half of all voters saying gas prices will influence their midterm choices, both parties are likely to make energy costs a centerpiece of fall campaigns — even as actual price movements remain more modest than public perception suggests.