Mediators have achieved progress in getting the United States and Iran back to negotiations, regional officials said Monday, after both sides paused attacks following a period of rapidly escalating tensions. But scattered attacks by armed groups across the region underscored lingering instability even as diplomatic efforts advance.
The pause marks three days without strikes from either Washington or Tehran, a respite after about two weeks of sustained bombardments that had raised fears of a return to all-out war between the two nations. The escalation began when Iran fired at ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for global oil shipments.
Regional officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss closed-door talks said mediators led by Qatar and Pakistan were working to bridge the gap between Washington and Tehran in hopes of returning to an interim ceasefire deal that had collapsed amid the exchanges of fire. One official described the progress as "significant."
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative hawks have expressed skepticism about diplomatic overtures, arguing that Iran's history of non-compliance with nuclear agreements undermines trust in any ceasefire framework. They point to Tehran's assertion that it can manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and potentially charge fees as evidence of bad-faith negotiating positions.
Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas said during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing last week that "the only language Iran understands is strength." He argued that pausing strikes risks emboldening Iranian proxies to test American resolve.
U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz told Fox News that President Trump is "giving talks some space" but dismissed concerns about interceptor stockpiles running low, saying the U.S. military remains well-supplied. Experts have questioned how long both sides can sustain offensive operations without depleting resources.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he plans to meet with Trump in Washington on Tuesday to discuss regional strategy. The two leaders last met in February before launching strikes that killed senior Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. "Israel fully backs President Trump's efforts to achieve a favorable resolution," Netanyahu's office said in a statement.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive lawmakers and foreign policy critics have called for diplomatic solutions over military escalation, arguing that continued strikes risk drawing the United States into another Middle East conflict without clear endgame.
Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut said on social media that the pause in attacks "shows what diplomacy can achieve" and urged the administration to prioritize negotiated settlements over bombardment campaigns. "Every day without bombing is a chance to find an off-ramp," he wrote.
Human rights organizations have raised concerns about civilian impacts from strikes on both sides. The International Crisis Group noted that shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz could drive up global energy prices, disproportionately affecting lower-income nations. "The economic fallout of sustained conflict would extend far beyond the region," the group said in a statement.
Progressives have also pointed to statements from Iran's Foreign Ministry suggesting indirect talks remain possible. Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Monday that "mediators may convey messages to us from the American side" even without direct negotiations between the two governments.
What the Numbers Show
Commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to a three-week low, according to a maritime body overseen by the U.S. Navy. The group reported no new attacks confirmed in the past 72 hours.
The interim ceasefire deal established a 60-day negotiating period in mid-June. That window is now well into its second half, with major issues including Iran's nuclear program set aside as mediators focus on shipping disputes.
Global gasoline prices have risen again amid concerns about supply disruptions through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb strait to the Red Sea, where Houthi rebels in Yemen threatened a blockade of Saudi shipping last week. The Houthis fired on at least one Saudi tanker, setting it ablaze.
The U.S. military said Saturday that its naval blockade against Iran continues, with 12 commercial ships redirected, two disabled, and two boarded by American forces. Iran maintains the waterway remains closed to most traffic.
At least four U.S. service members have been killed since the conflict escalated: three at a base in Jordan and one in Iraq. Iran-backed groups including Hezbollah in Lebanon entered the fighting after Israel responded to initial attacks with airstrikes and a ground invasion.
The Bottom Line
The pause in direct exchanges between Washington and Tehran offers a window for diplomacy, though multiple flashpoints remain active across the region. Mediators are working with Iran and Oman on mechanisms for managing vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with talks also held Friday and Saturday between the two coastal states.
What happens next likely depends on whether both sides view the interim ceasefire framework as salvageable. Baghaei stressed Monday that Iran considers the waterway closure a negotiating point rather than a permanent condition, though he provided no timeline for reopening.
Regional analysts will watch the Trump-Netanyahu meeting Tuesday for signals about Israeli strategy and American willingness to extend diplomatic space. Separately, Ukraine's strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea — which killed one sailor according to Iran's foreign minister — adds another dimension to already-complex regional dynamics.