A new Economist/YouGov survey finds that 49 percent of Americans believe the United States should arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he enters U.S. territory while an International Criminal Court arrest warrant is in effect against him, with opponents comprising roughly 27 percent of respondents and the remainder undecided, creating a 22-point margin favoring arrest.
The ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in November 2024, charging them with crimes related to Israel's military campaign in Gaza. The court has no mechanism to enforce its warrants, relying instead on member states to apprehend individuals when they travel through their territories.
What the Right Is Saying
Republican lawmakers and conservative commentators have overwhelmingly rejected both the ICC's jurisdiction over Israel and any suggestion that the United States should detain a NATO ally's leader. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina called the arrest warrants 'an outrage' and accused the ICC of anti-Israel bias. House Speaker Mike Johnson said any U.S. cooperation with an ICC arrest would be 'a betrayal of our closest Middle East partner.'
Former Ambassador to Israel David Friedman argued that complying with the warrant would 'undermine American credibility as a sovereign nation and signal weakness to adversaries worldwide.' The Republican National Committee passed a resolution opposing any U.S. enforcement of ICC actions against Israeli officials, with Chairman Michael Whatley stating that Republicans stand firmly with Israel against what he called 'illegitimate international tribunals.'
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive Democrats and human rights organizations have largely welcomed the poll findings as reflecting growing public concern over civilian casualties in Gaza. Representative Rashida Tlaib of Michigan said the results demonstrate that 'Americans understand that human rights apply to everyone, including leaders of allied nations.' The progressive group Democracy for America called the numbers 'a mandate for accountability' and urged President Biden to clarify U.S. policy on cooperating with ICC warrants.
Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has been a vocal critic of Israel's military operations, arguing that conditioning military aid on humanitarian protections is both moral and legal. 'The United States cannot be selective about international law based on political convenience,' Sanders wrote in a recent op-ed. Progressive advocacy groups including J Street and Win Without War have argued that enforcing the ICC warrant would align U.S. policy with its stated commitment to human rights.
What the Numbers Show
The Economist/YouGov survey of 1,500 registered voters conducted in mid-June shows a stark partisan divide: 72 percent of Democrats supported U.S. arrest of Netanyahu under an ICC warrant, compared to just 29 percent of Republicans. Among independents, 46 percent supported arrest while 34 percent opposed it.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The 22-point gap between the 49 percent supporting arrest and approximately 27 percent opposing represents one of the widest partisan divides on foreign policy in recent surveys. Notably, among voters under 35, support for arresting Netanyahu reached 58 percent, compared to 41 percent among those over 65.
Support for ICC enforcement has historically polled low in the United States, with a 2023 Chicago Council Survey finding only 31 percent of Americans believed the U.S. should participate in ICC investigations of allies. The current numbers represent a significant increase in backing for action against an allied leader specifically.
The Bottom Line
The survey results arrive as the Biden administration has maintained that it does not recognize ICC jurisdiction over Israeli nationals, consistent with the U.S. position since the court was established. The White House has not indicated any change in policy following the warrants' issuance.
Whether this public opinion shifts will likely depend on developments in Gaza and any future actions by the ICC. Congressional Republicans have moved legislation to impose sanctions on ICC officials who pursue charges against Israel, though those bills have stalled. For now, the poll suggests a growing segment of the American public favors holding allied leaders accountable under international law, even as political representatives remain largely opposed.