South Dakota Republicans will decide Tuesday in a primary runoff whether to nominate Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden for a full term or businessman Toby Doeden as their gubernatorial candidate for November's general election.
The two were the top vote-getters in the June 2 Republican primary, but neither reached the 35% threshold required to win the nomination outright. The winner will face Democratic former state Sen. Dan Ahlers in the general election, where Republicans hold a significant structural advantage in the reliably conservative state that hasn't elected a Democratic governor since the 1970s.
Rhoden assumed the governorship earlier this year after then-Gov. Kristi Noem stepped down to join President Donald Trump's Cabinet as secretary of homeland security. The primary field also included U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson and state House Speaker Jon Hansen, who both fell short of the runoff.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic candidate Dan Ahlers has framed the race as an opportunity for voters to consider new leadership. In statements reported by South Dakota Public Broadcasting, Ahlers noted that regardless of which Republican wins Tuesday, his campaign will focus on kitchen-table issues affecting working families in the state.
The Democratic Governors Association has signaled it will monitor the race, though party strategists acknowledge the difficulty of winning a statewide race in one of the nation's most Republican-leaning states. The Cook Political Report rates the gubernatorial race as "Solid Republican."
Progressive advocacy groups have highlighted rural healthcare and education funding as key contrasts they expect Ahlers to emphasize against whichever Republican nominee emerges from Tuesday's vote.
What the Right Is Saying
Rhoden has run on his record of governing since taking office, emphasizing continuity with Noem's administration while presenting himself as a steady hand during the transition. His campaign has pointed to his work on the state budget and economic development initiatives in rural communities.
Doeden's campaign has positioned itself as a contrast to career politicians, arguing that his business experience brings fresh perspectives to state government. His primary night speech emphasized reducing regulatory burdens and attracting new businesses to South Dakota.
The Republican Governors Association has backed Rhoden, with RGA Chair Phil Cox stating that the lieutenant governor "has demonstrated he can lead" during a time of transition in Pierre. Doeden has countered by arguing the race represents an opportunity for Republicans to present a different vision for the state's future.
Conservative commentators in the state have noted that either candidate would be favored in November, with the primary representing the main competitive contest in the governor's race cycle.
What the Numbers Show
Doeden led the June 2 primary with approximately 31% of the vote. Rhoden received about 25%, followed by Johnson at 23% and Hansen at roughly 21%. The close three-way race for second place ultimately sent Rhoden to the runoff despite trailing Doeden by about six percentage points.
As of June 1, South Dakota had approximately 676,000 registered voters total. Of those, about 322,000 were active registered Republicans eligible to vote in Tuesday's primary — roughly 48% of all registered voters in the state.
About 136,000 votes were cast in the Republican gubernatorial primary on June 2. Early and absentee voting accounted for approximately 19% of the 2024 primary vote and about 20% of the 2022 primary vote, providing a baseline for expected mail-in participation this cycle.
Two key counties to watch are Minnehaha County in the east, home to Sioux Falls, and Pennington County in the west, home to Rapid City. Combined, they represent roughly one-third of the state's registered Republicans. Doeden narrowly edged Johnson in Minnehaha County and held about a 7-point lead over Rhoden in Pennington County during the June primary.
Rhoden secured his runoff position with wins across central and northwestern South Dakota, including key leads in Meade, Lawrence and Hughes County, which contains Pierre, the state capital. Lincoln County, south of Sioux Falls, represents another potential battleground — it is the state's third-most populous county and was the largest where neither Doeden nor Rhoden placed first or second.
Polls close at 7 p.m. local time (8-9 p.m. ET depending on county). South Dakota counties typically release results from all voting methods together, with most counties providing in-person Election Day results in their first vote updates alongside mail and early in-person ballots.
The Bottom Line
Tuesday's runoff will determine which Republican faces Dan Ahlers in November. While either candidate would enter the general election as a heavy favorite given South Dakota's political leanings, the primary outcome shapes what direction Republicans present to voters heading into the fall campaign.
For Rhoden, a victory would validate his transition from lieutenant governor and establish him as the party's clear standard-bearer. For Doeden, winning would represent an upset of an incumbent governor and signal voter appetite for new leadership in Pierre.
The race will be decided by Republican primary voters alone — South Dakota's runoff allows any registered Republican who didn't vote in the June 2 primary to still participate Tuesday. Turnout levels among these newly eligible voters could prove decisive in a contest decided by roughly 136,000 votes last month.
As of Tuesday, there are 98 days until the November general election.