Voters in Michigan and Missouri head to the polls Tuesday in Democratic primaries that have become high-stakes referendums on Israel policy within the party, with a record influx of pro-Israel spending reshaping both races.
In Michigan's Senate primary, AIPAC's main super PAC United Democracy Project has spent $30 million — more than double its previous highest spend ever, according to AdImpact data — to defeat progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed and elect incumbent Rep. Haley Stevens. In Missouri's 1st District, the same group has invested $2 million to stop a comeback bid by Rep. Cori Bush after spending $9 million last cycle to unseat her.
The contests represent what both sides are calling a fork-in-the-road moment for pro-Israel Democrats, who warn that losses could fundamentally reshape their place in the party.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive and Israel-critical Democrats argue the primaries reflect a broader shift in voter sentiment toward holding Israel accountable for its actions in Gaza. They point to polling data showing growing discontent with unconditional U.S. support for Israel.
"There feels like people were upset with the war in Gaza," said Andy Schor, mayor of Lansing, Michigan, and one of the highest-ranking Jewish elected officials in the state, though he noted his personal view is that "these candidates are anti-Israel."
El-Sayed's campaign has sought to distinguish between criticism of Israeli government policies and antisemitism. Campaign spokesperson Roxie Richner said El-Sayed "has continuously emphasized the importance of differentiating between criticisms of the Israeli government and Judaism and the Jewish people" and that he understands "the fights against antisemitism and islamophobia are intertwined."
Progressive groups have scored wins in New York, New Jersey, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Illinois this cycle by capitalizing on voters' negative attitudes toward Israel. Supporters say the Michigan and Missouri races represent some of progressives' last opportunities to cement a foothold in the party ahead of November.
What the Right Is Saying
Pro-Israel Democrats counter that AIPAC's historic spending reflects deep concern about the direction of the party and warn that progressive victories could push Jewish voters out of the Democratic coalition entirely. Nearly 60 percent of Democrats believe the party is too supportive of Israel, according to an AP-NORC survey from June.
"There is a high level of discomfort in the Jewish community," said Sam Lauter, founding member of Democratic Majority for Israel, which has endorsed Stevens and Bush opponent Rep. Wesley Bell (D-Mo.). "If El-Sayed and Bush score victories, it does mean that my community is going to have to reassess how we're approaching this battle, reassess our role in the party itself."
Patrick Dorton, spokesperson for United Democracy Project, insisted pro-Israel Democrats are not backing down. "We are not going to let pro-Israel voices in the Democratic Party be silenced," he said. "We are going to make sure that pro-Israel voices are heard in the primary process, this year and in the future."
Michigan state Rep. Noah Arbit, founder of the Michigan Democratic Jewish Caucus, said Jewish Democrats are questioning their political home. "It makes it very uncomfortable for elected Jewish Democrats like myself to wonder, when every other thing is about Israel and Jews, what's my place in this party?" he asked.
What the Numbers Show
AIPAC's spending in Michigan represents an unprecedented investment in a single Democratic primary. The $30 million by United Democracy Project more than doubles its previous record spend, according to AdImpact data.
The AP-NORC poll found 60 percent of Democrats believe their party is too supportive of Israel as of June 2026, up from 45 percent who felt similarly in January 2024 — a 15-point increase in roughly two and a half years.
In Missouri, AIPAC's $2 million investment comes after spending $9 million to help Bell defeat Bush in the 2024 primary. That race was one of AIPAC's biggest wins last cycle.
Bush's campaign has accused Bell of "abandoning" Missourians and "jetting off to Israel with AIPAC," while El-Sayed has attacked Stevens for aligning herself "with AIPAC and Republicans to continue to fund a war machine."
Both races are being closely watched as bellwethers for November, when control of both chambers of Congress will be contested.
The Bottom Line
Tuesday's results will determine whether pro-Israel Democrats can maintain their footing within the party or face increased marginalization. If Stevens and Bell lose, some Jewish Democrats worry their defeats could represent a tipping point that leaves many pro-Israel elected officials politically orphaned ahead of a pivotal general election.
The Michigan race also serves as a unique litmus test in a purple state poised to play an outsized role in selecting the party's next presidential nominee. Both contests will be watched closely by national party strategists weighing how to balance progressive energy with traditionally reliable Jewish voter turnout.