Democratic Senate hopefuls Alani Bankhead of Montana and Julian Beaudion of South Dakota are resisting mounting pressure from within their own party to withdraw and clear the field for independent candidates, telling POLITICO they have no plans to exit. Bankhead said only "a lightning bolt from God" would change her mind; Beaudion said he is not considering dropping out.
The refusals come as withdrawal deadlines approach — Tuesday in South Dakota and Aug. 10 in Montana — and as polls, fundraising and campaign operations show independents Seth Bodnar (Montana) and Brian Bengs (South Dakota) with stronger, if still muddled, paths to victory in November. Democrats across the ideological spectrum warn that a crowded field would make it nearly impossible to flip seats in Mountain West states Trump dominated in 2024.
What the Left Is Saying
Democrats from centrist think tanks to Bernie Sanders' orbit say the party must prioritize beating Republicans over running its own nominees. "The math is inescapable," said Matt Bennett, co-founder of Third Way. "If it's impossible for a Democrat to win, it is vital that the Democrats step aside and give the independent at least a shot of beating the Republican." Pat Dennis, president of American Bridge 21st Century, called stepping aside "both strategically and morally correct" where a Democrat cannot win.
Faiz Shakir, a longtime adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), stopped short of calling for withdrawals but said independents unburdened by either party's brand have real opportunity in rural, conservative areas. Bankhead and Beaudion counter that they can win — Bankhead citing anti-incumbency sentiment and her expectation that voters decide on Nov. 3, Beaudion crediting his relationships with voters across the state.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans enter November favored on paper in both states. In South Dakota, GOP Sen. Mike Rounds holds the seat Beaudion seeks; in Montana, Kurt Alme is the Republican nominee against Bodnar. Both are deep-red territories Trump carried decisively in 2024, and a split opposition field generally improves Republican odds — though the Libertarian candidate on the Montana ballot could draw votes from Alme and complicate that calculation.
What the Numbers Show
POLITICO reported that numerous polls show independents with stronger paths to victory than their Democratic rivals, alongside stronger fundraising and campaign operations. The withdrawal deadlines set firm timetables: Tuesday in South Dakota and Aug. 10 in Montana. Precedent cuts both ways — Nebraska's Democratic nominee withdrew to clear the way for independent Dan Osborn (though a court case from an anti-abortion pastor complicates that race), and Idaho's nominee dropped out for independent Todd Achilles.
The Bottom Line
If either Democrat remains on the ballot, party strategists say it becomes almost impossible to pry these seats from Republicans in November — imperiling Democrats' hopes of retaking Senate control. Both candidates insist voters will decide regardless. The coming days determine whether this cycle's red-state playbook of independent candidacies extends to Montana and South Dakota.