Former GOP strategist Joseph Moreno said "this might be the year" that Democrats win in Texas after a three-decade drought since any Democrat has won statewide in the Lone Star State. In an appearance on CNN's "The Lead," Moreno told host Jake Tapper that recent polling showing state Rep. James Talarico (D) leading Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) signals potential vulnerability for Republicans in traditionally red Texas.
Moreno, a former Republican strategist who worked for Sen. John Cornyn and former Gov. Rick Perry, said the polling numbers reflect broader shifts in the state's political landscape. The Lone Star State has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, when Governor Ann Richards lost to George W. Bush. Republicans have dominated Texas politics for three decades, but some party strategists are now questioning whether that dominance is eroding.
What the Right Is Saying
Texas Republicans have dismissed the polling as an outlier, noting that Paxton remains well-funded and has strong name recognition across the state. Party officials argue that Talarico's numbers represent early enthusiasm from Democratic base voters that will not hold through Election Day. They point to historical patterns where Texas Democrats perform better in polls than at the ballot box.
Conservative commentators have argued that Paxton's legal troubles, including his 2015 indictment on securities fraud charges that was later dismissed, do not resonate with GOP primary voters who view him as a champion of conservative causes. Republican strategists insist the party will unify behind Paxton and point to the state's strong Republican voter identification in statewide races.
What the Left Is Saying
Texas Democrats have pointed to Talarico's polling lead as evidence that the state's political demographics are shifting in their favor. Talarico, a 34-year-old state legislator and former public school teacher, has run on an platform emphasizing education funding, abortion access, and increasing the minimum wage. His campaign has focused on suburban voters and young Texans who Democrats believe are increasingly skeptical of the Republican Party's direction.
Democratic strategists argue that if Talarico can defeat Paxton, it would open a pathway for other statewide candidates. They point to changing voter registration numbers in major metropolitan areas like Houston, Dallas, and Austin as evidence of a potential realignment. The party's leadership has signaled that Texas is a top target for the 2026 cycle.
What the Numbers Show
Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, when former Sen. Lloyd Doggett was the last Democratic winner in a federal race. The Talarico-Paxton polling shows Talarico leading by single digits in some surveys, though Paxton's campaign disputes these figures as premature. Texas has approximately 17 million registered voters, with Republicans holding a registration advantage of roughly 5 percentage points over Democrats in statewide races.
Suburban counties around major cities have shown modest shifts toward Democratic candidates in recent election cycles, including in the 2022 midterms and various local races. However, rural voter turnout traditionally favors Republican candidates by significant margins.
The Bottom Line
The Talarico-Paxton race has become a focal point for both parties as they assess Texas's political trajectory heading into the 2026 cycle. Whether one poll represents a genuine shift or remains an outlier will depend on fundraising, candidate performance in debates, and broader national political conditions. Both sides are treating Texas as competitive territory for the first time in recent memory, suggesting the state's three-decade Republican dominance may face its most serious challenge yet.