New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul's lead over Republican candidate Bruce Blakeman is narrowing, according to a new Siena University poll released Wednesday, with under three months remaining until Election Day.
The survey of likely New York State gubernatorial voters shows Hochul leading Blakeman 49-39%, down from her 52-32% advantage when registered voters were asked the same question in June. The poll was conducted Aug. 3-6 among 811 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
What the Left Is Saying
Hochul's campaign has not yet issued a public response to the poll findings. However, Siena pollster Steven Greenberg noted historical context for the current race, pointing out that in August 2022—four years ago and just after Hochul finished her first year as governor—she led Republican Lee Zeldin by 14 points, 53-39%, before ultimately winning the election by six points, 53-47%.
The poll indicates Hochul maintains advantages on several key issues. Likely voters believe she would do a better job than Blakeman on making prices more affordable for average New Yorkers, 48-41%, and increasing the supply of affordable housing, 51-35%. She holds narrower leads on keeping New Yorkers safe, 47-44%, and addressing undocumented immigrants in the state, 45-44%.
What the Right Is Saying
Blakeman, who serves as Nassau County executive, pushed back on the poll findings in a statement to Fox News Digital. "All of the polls we have seen in the last two months have us virtually tied with Kathy Hochul," he said, adding that "This poll is always off and continues to be off."
"We know and she knows this race is neck and neck," Blakeman stated. He argued that Hochul's policies have created difficulties for residents, saying "Kathy Hochul is desperate for people to believe that she is way ahead when she knows that her high taxes, soaring electric bills, and increased crime have made her the worst governor in America."
What the Numbers Show
The Siena Research Institute poll reveals a closely divided electorate with clear regional and demographic patterns. Both candidates are holding their partisan bases: Hochul leads among Democrats 80-8%, while Blakeman leads among Republicans 84-9%. Independent voters favor Blakeman by a narrow five-point margin, 45-40%.
Geographically, Hochul holds a commanding lead in New York City at 64-19%, but trails Blakeman in the downstate suburbs by eight points, 49-41%. The two candidates are running virtually even upstate.
Demographically, Hochul has large leads with women, Latino voters, and Black voters. Among men and white voters, the race is essentially tied. The poll also asked likely voters about the Democratic Socialists of America for the first time, finding a negative favorability rating of 30-47% overall—though Democrats view the DSA favorably at 50-21%, while 82% of Republicans and 57% of independents hold an unfavorable view.
The Bottom Line
The poll suggests Hochul retains a lead but faces a more competitive race than she did two months ago. With less than three months to Election Day, Blakeman's argument that the race is neck-and-neck appears supported by the data among likely voters and independents. What happens next will likely depend on which candidate succeeds in mobilizing their base and winning over persuadable voters in key regions, particularly the downstate suburbs where Hochul trails. The final Siena pre-election poll will be a critical indicator of whether Blakeman's polling criticism holds merit or whether Hochul's historical August polling advantage translates into eventual victory.