Republican Rhett Marques is projected to win the GOP nomination in Alabama's 2nd Congressional District, setting up a general election contest against Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures in one of the most closely watched redistricting battles in the country.
The race has been shaped by a pivotal Supreme Court decision in June that allowed Alabama Republicans to reinstate a 2023 congressional map. That map eliminated the majority-black Montgomery-area district that had previously given Black voters their best opportunity to elect a preferred candidate, raising significant questions about minority representation in the state.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic leaders and voting rights advocates argue the redrawn map undermines decades of progress on racial equity in Alabama's electoral system. The Congressional Black Caucus has called the Supreme Court's ruling a step backward for representation, saying it dilutes the political power of Black voters who make up roughly 27 percent of the state's population.
Figures' campaign has emphasized his track record of constituent service and argued that district boundaries should reflect communities of interest rather than partisan calculations. His team has pointed to robust grassroots organizing in traditionally Democratic areas as evidence of continued voter engagement despite the new map.
What the Right Is Saying
Alabama Republican officials maintain the 2023 map complies with federal law and reflects legitimate redistricting principles. State GOP Chairman John Merrill said the party is confident in presenting its case to voters across the newly configured district, which now includes more rural and suburban areas traditionally supportive of Republican candidates.
Supporters of the new boundaries argue that Alabama's Black voters will still have opportunities to influence elections through candidate choice and coalition-building rather than relying on district configuration alone. National Republicans have designated the seat as a priority target given the political geography of the redrawn lines.
What the Numbers Show
Under the previous map, Alabama's 2nd District had a Black voting-age population of approximately 55 percent, which voting rights groups argued was necessary to ensure representation for the state's minority communities. The new district reduces that concentration significantly while expanding into whiter, more Republican-leaning territory.
Figures won his seat in 2024 with roughly 58 percent of the vote under the previous map. Presidential-level voting patterns in the redrawn district show a substantial Republican lean, though local down-ballot dynamics can differ from national trends.
The Bottom Line
The Figures-Marques matchup represents one of the most significant tests of how redistricting decisions translate into electoral outcomes. If Marques prevails in November, it would mark only the second time a Republican has won this seat since Reconstruction. Both campaigns are expected to be well-funded, and national party committees will likely invest heavily in the race given its implications for House control.