Former Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Ala.) is projected to advance to the general election for Alabama's 1st Congressional District after winning the GOP nomination for outgoing Rep. Barry Moore's seat, according to Decision Desk HQ projections. Carl, who previously represented the district from 2021 to 2025, secured the Republican nomination over three other primary candidates.
Carl won the open seat being vacated by Moore, a two-term Republican congressman who chose not to seek reelection. The 1st Congressional District covers the southwestern portion of Alabama, including Mobile and surrounding Gulf Coast communities.
What the Right Is Saying
Alabama Republicans have rallied behind Carl's candidacy, viewing his prior congressional experience as an asset for the district. Supporters argue that Carl's previous tenure equipped him with knowledge of federal issues affecting Gulf Coast communities, including maritime commerce, military installations, and hurricane preparedness funding. The Republican National Committee and Alabama GOP leadership have indicated support for Carl heading into the general election.
What the Left Is Saying
Democrats have not nominated a candidate as of this report. The 1st Congressional District has historically favored Republican candidates in general elections. National Democratic committees typically focus resources on more competitive districts rather than heavily Republican-leaning seats like Alabama's 1st District, where GOP candidates have won by significant margins in recent cycles.
What the Numbers Show
Carl served one term in Congress from 2021 to 2025 after defeating Democrat Lori Sealts in the 2020 general election with approximately 63% of the vote, according to official election results. The district has voted Republican in every congressional election since its lines were redrawn following the 2010 Census. Barry Moore won his 2022 reelection bid with roughly 65% of the vote against Democratic challenger Phyllis O. Howard.
The Bottom Line
Carl appears positioned to return to Washington as the GOP nominee for Alabama's 1st Congressional District. Without a competitive Democratic challenger as of this reporting, the general election outcome is expected to favor Carl in November. The race will be decided by Republican primary voters rather than a broader electorate, given the district's partisan lean. Voters in the district can expect increased campaign activity from both state and national Republican organizations in the coming weeks.