On June 25, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the beginning of a 40-day "influence" campaign aimed at pressuring Russia to end its military operation against Ukraine. The campaign marked a strategic shift in Kyiv's long-range strike priorities, redirecting attacks from military installations toward civilian economic infrastructure inside Russia.
During the campaign, Ukrainian forces struck approximately a dozen warehouses belonging to Wildberries, Russia's largest e-commerce company often compared to Amazon for its market dominance. The strikes drew cheers from segments of the Ukrainian public celebrating damage to Russian commercial interests.
However, Moscow's response has proven far more consequential for Ukraine's economy than the damage inflicted on Russian logistics centers. Russian armed forces have launched a sustained campaign targeting Ukrainian ports along the Black Sea coast, which analysts say has effectively rendered the country de-facto landlocked by severely limiting its maritime export capabilities.
Ukraine traditionally relied on its Black Sea ports to export grain, steel, and other commodities essential to its economy. The destruction of port facilities and ongoing threats to shipping have disrupted these supply chains, with significant implications for national revenue and international trade relationships.
What the Left Is Saying
Ukrainian officials and their Western allies argue that striking Russian economic infrastructure represents a legitimate response to Moscow's invasion of Ukrainian territory. Supporters contend that Ukraine has the right to project force beyond its borders to degrade Russia's ability to fund and sustain its military operations.
Zelensky's administration has framed the warehouse strikes as part of a broader strategy to bring pressure on the Russian public and elite, demonstrating that the conflict carries costs for ordinary Russians. The Ukrainian president emphasized during his June 25 announcement that Russia cannot expect immunity from consequences while it wages war against Ukraine.
Western analysts who support continued military assistance to Kyiv say the port campaign reflects Russia's desperation in the face of Ukrainian resilience. They argue that Moscow's targeting of civilian port infrastructure constitutes a form of economic warfare that justifies Kyiv's own strikes on Russian logistics hubs.
What the Right Is Saying
Critics and some international observers raise concerns about the strategic calculus behind Ukraine's shift to targeting civilian commercial sites. Skeptics question whether warehouse attacks against an e-commerce company meaningfully impact Russia's war-making capacity or merely serve as symbolic retaliation.
From this perspective, Russia's response has exposed vulnerabilities in Ukrainian coastal infrastructure that Kyiv may not have adequately anticipated or defended. Some analysts suggest that diverting long-range strike assets toward targets of limited military value left gaps in air defense coverage for critical port facilities.
Others argue that Ukraine's landlocked status represents a strategic failure that could have been avoided with different targeting priorities. They contend that resources expended on warehouse strikes might have been better used to protect existing maritime export routes or target Russian naval assets in the Black Sea.
What the Numbers Show
Ukraine's agricultural exports, primarily shipped through Black Sea ports, generated approximately $22 billion in revenue annually before Russia's 2022 invasion, according to World Bank trade data. The country is one of the world's largest exporters of wheat and sunflower oil.
Prior to the current escalation, Ukrainian grain shipments via the Black Sea Grain Initiative had partially restored export capacity following the initiative's collapse in mid-2023. Insurance costs for vessels operating in the region have risen sharply since June, with some shipping analysts reporting premiums exceeding 2% of cargo value.
The Wildberries warehouses struck by Ukrainian forces represent logistics nodes in Russia's domestic retail network rather than critical military supply chains. Wildberries reported approximately $10 billion in annual gross merchandise volume in its most recent financial disclosures.
The Bottom Line
Ukraine's 40-day "influence" campaign has produced mixed results, with significant damage to Russian commercial infrastructure offset by a retaliatory response that has severely constrained Ukraine's own export capabilities. Whether the trade-off serves Ukrainian strategic interests depends on assessment of intangible factors including domestic morale and Moscow's tolerance for economic disruption.
The de-facto loss of maritime access creates immediate pressure on Ukraine's foreign exchange earnings and its ability to fund government operations through export revenues. Kyiv will need to identify alternative export routes, likely via overland connections to European neighbors, while seeking to restore at least partial port functionality.
International observers are watching whether the warehouse campaign generates sufficient domestic Russian pressure to alter Moscow's strategic calculus, or whether it primarily serves as a demonstration of Ukrainian reach that carries symbolic rather than operational weight. The coming weeks will test whether Ukraine can rebuild its coastal export infrastructure faster than Russia can degrade it.