Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, and former Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, advanced out of Alaska's top-four jungle primary on Tuesday evening in a Senate race that could influence the balance of power in Washington.
Alaska uses a nonpartisan primary system in which all candidates compete together regardless of party affiliation, with the four highest vote-getters advancing to the general election. The November matchup will use ranked-choice voting, where voters rank candidates by preference and support transfers when a candidate is eliminated.
The outcome pits an incumbent Republican against Peltola, who became the only Democrat to win statewide office in Alaska since 1972 when she was elected to Congress in 2022. She lost her re-election bid in 2024 to Rep. Nicholas Begich, a Republican businessman, by a margin of 51.2% to 48.8%.
What the Left Is Saying
Democrats view Peltola as their strongest candidate for flipping Sullivan's seat and securing a Senate majority. Former Vice President Kamala Harris has voiced support for her candidacy.
"If there's anyone who can flip Alaska and secure the Senate majority for Democrats — it's Mary," Harris wrote in a fundraising email earlier this year, according to Fox News Digital's reporting of campaign communications.
Peltola's supporters argue that ranked-choice voting expands voter power and gives candidates who might not be top choices under traditional systems a path to victory. They note her previous statewide win demonstrates her ability to appeal beyond core Democratic voters in a traditionally Republican-leaning state.
What the Right Is Saying
Sen. Sullivan has been a vocal critic of Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, which was adopted by voters in 2020.
"Like many others who did not support ranked choice voting in 2020, I still believe that this new election system has created unnecessary confusion among voters," Sullivan told local Alaskan media in 2024.
Sullivan also criticized what he characterized as an attempt to confuse voters through a same-name candidate. A second Dan Sullivan — Dan J. Sullivan, a logger with no listed party affiliation or policy positions — appeared on Tuesday's ballot alongside the incumbent senator.
"The Democratic Party is talking about 'we care about fair elections.' It's bulls---," Sullivan said. "The Democrats in D.C., the Peltola campaign, are complicit in trying to trick Alaskans."
What the Numbers Show
Peltola won her 2022 special election with 54.8% of the vote after redistributing support from a third candidate under ranked-choice voting.
She lost her re-election bid by approximately 3 percentage points to Begich in 2024, despite national Democratic investment in the race.
Alaska has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1972, making any statewide Democratic victory an uphill battle in a state that voted for Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020.
The Bottom Line
The November general election will proceed under Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, which critics like Sullivan argue introduces voter confusion but supporters say expands electoral choice. With four candidates advancing from Tuesday's primary, the race could hinge on second-choice preferences among voters whose preferred candidate is eliminated in early tabulation rounds. The outcome may affect Senate majority calculations heading into 2027.