Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is downplaying concerns among some Republicans that Democrats could flip the Lone Star State blue in this year's Senate race, arguing that voters will choose GOP nominee Ken Paxton over Democratic challenger James Talarico based on what he calls an extraordinary contrast between the two candidates.
Abbott made the comments during an interview with ABC News' Jonathan Karl. The governor, who is seeking a fourth term, addressed questions about Paxton's political vulnerabilities, including reports that the Senate GOP's fundraising arms have withheld money from his campaign following President Donald Trump's effort to oust incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn.
What the Left Is Saying
Karl pressed Abbott on concerns from Texas Republicans who say Paxton is not working hard enough, is struggling to raise money, and carries too much political baggage. "So I've heard from Republicans, Texas Republicans, who have real concerns about Ken Paxton," Karl said. Democrats and progressive groups have seized on those internal GOP tensions, arguing that Paxton's legal troubles and fundraising struggles make him vulnerable in a state that has not elected a Democrat statewide in nearly three decades.
Talarico's campaign has dominated the airwaves while outraising Paxton significantly in one of the nation's largest and most expensive states for statewide campaigns. Democratic strategists have pointed to shifting demographics, growing suburban support, and enthusiasm among minority voters as factors that could narrow the traditional Republican advantage in Texas.
What the Right Is Saying
Abbott rejected the notion that Paxton's challenges will cost Republicans the seat. "Let's put it in context where Ken Paxton is in his campaign, and that is he was in a three-month-long runoff that demanded capital," Abbott said, adding that Paxton is now catching up after focusing on the primary battle against Cornyn.
The governor argued that the race comes down to simple voter choice. "When voters go to make a choice on November, the contrast they will see between Ken Paxton and James Talarico is so extraordinary," Abbott said. "That choice is going to be easy." Republican strategists note that Texas still leans heavily conservative overall, with historical patterns showing strong GOP performance in statewide races despite increasingly competitive federal contests.
What the Numbers Show
The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Talarico holding a narrow one-point advantage over Paxton. The Cook Political Report ranks the race as a toss-up, a significant development for a state that has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994.
An Emerson College poll found top issues for Texas voters include the economy at 30%, immigration at 19%, threats to democracy at 14%, and healthcare at 13%. Republican voters rank immigration as their top issue at 32%, while Democrats at 33% and independents at 31% rate the economy as their top concern.
Paxton holds his strongest advantage among white voters and men, while Talarico leads among most Black and Hispanic voters, according to survey data cited by ABC News.
The Bottom Line
The Texas Senate race represents one of the most closely watched contests of the cycle. Abbott's confidence reflects historical Republican strength in the state, but polling showing a near-dead heat has raised alarms within parts of the GOP establishment. What happens next will likely depend on which party's ground game performs better, whether outside money shifts the airwaves landscape, and how undecided voters ultimately view the candidates' contrasting visions for the state. Both sides acknowledge the race remains competitive with five weeks until Election Day.