Republican campaigns across competitive 2026 electoral battlegrounds are deploying advertisements focused on transgender issues, mirroring a strategy that party strategists credit with aiding former President Donald Trump's victory in 2024. The ads primarily target Democratic candidates over policies related to transgender athletes' participation in women's sports and gender-affirming medical care for minors.
The approach has appeared in Senate races in Kansas, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, as well as gubernatorial contests including Florida. A recent Kansas advertisement targeting Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist pastor, combined video clips to misleadingly suggest he holds extreme positions on gender issues. PolitiFact rated the ad's stitched-together quote false.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative strategists point to 2024 results as evidence the messaging resonates with swing voters. Terry Schilling, president of the American Principles Project, a conservative advocacy group, stated in a January podcast episode that anti-transgender advertisements were 'a decisive factor' in Trump's victory. 'It swung the most voters over to him, the most swing voters,' Schilling said on The Daily Signal podcast. 'They said their top issue was that Kamala cared more about transgender issues than people like them.'
Hunter Lovell, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, provided a statement to PolitiFact characterizing the Democratic position as 'defending child gender mutilation and allowing boys to infiltrate girls' locker rooms and sports.' The RNC has defended the advertising strategy as responsive to voter concerns about rapid cultural change.
Republican campaigns have also targeted incumbent Democrats. In Georgia, an ad from former U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter contrasted his anti-transgender positions with Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. An Ohio advertisement revived a 2024 attack tying Democrat Sherrod Brown to 'boys in girls' sports.' A Texas Senate race featured an AI-generated advertisement portraying Democratic candidate James Talarico wearing a dress.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive groups and Democratic candidates argue that Republican attacks mischaracterize their positions and distract from kitchen-table issues. In Iowa, state Rep. Josh Turek, the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate targeted by Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson's ad claiming he supports 'sex changes for kids,' stated he opposes gender-affirming surgeries for minors without supporting a broad medical ban. PolitiFact rated Hinson's claim False.
Tyson Brody, a spokesperson for Hamilton's Kansas campaign, said the candidate does not think girls should compete against boys in sports and that gender-affirming surgeries should not be performed on children. 'But no one should attack or demean a small and vulnerable group of people just to score political points,' Brody said. 'Adam thinks Washington spends far more energy on this issue than on the things Kansans actually lose sleep over, like fixing health care or lowering costs.'
Tyler Hack, executive director of the Christopher Street Project, a transgender-rights advocacy organization, argued candidates should frame restrictions as privacy and bodily autonomy questions. 'We know that when you talk to people about genital inspections in schools for girls, as young as 4 years old, who don't look feminine enough in the eyes of Republicans, they think that's gross,' Hack said.
Lanae Erickson, senior vice president for social policy at the center-left think tank Third Way, noted that remaining silent against attacks can create negative impressions. 'The goal is to get them back to being able to explain their own position rather than simply avoiding the issue,' she said.
What the Numbers Show
Public opinion polling shows majority support for restrictions on transgender athlete participation and youth medical care, though not universal opposition. Gallup's 2025 survey found 69% of U.S. adults believe transgender athletes should only compete on teams matching their birth sex. Pew Research Center data shows 56% support banning transition-related medical care for minors, with that figure increasing since 2022.
Gender-affirming surgery for minors is exceedingly rare, and no major medical associations endorse performing such procedures on young children. Medical guidelines require parental consent for any treatment of transgender minors, which may include puberty blockers or hormone therapy.
A recent Fox News poll found voters trust Democrats more than Republicans on transgender issues by a 13-point margin. University of Kansas political science professor Don Haider-Markel said anti-transgender messaging proved less effective in 2025 gubernatorial elections and recent special elections. American University professor Andrew Flores, who researches LGBTQ issues in politics, noted uncertainty about whether the ads are swaying voters. 'Even though this is a continuation of a strategy, it's not necessarily clear that this is a winning strategy, per se,' Flores said.
The Bottom Line
Republicans are betting that cultural anxiety over gender policy will drive turnout and sway persuadable voters in competitive 2026 races, building on what they characterize as a successful 2024 playbook. Democrats face internal divisions over how to respond, with some candidates explicitly distancing themselves from youth medical care while arguing against what they describe as inflammatory rhetoric.
Voters consistently cite the economy and affordability as top concerns in midterm elections. Experts are divided on whether anti-transgender advertising will prove decisive or backfire with general-election audiences. Political scientists point to recent electoral results suggesting diminished effectiveness, though strategists from both parties acknowledge the messaging continues to animate core Republican supporters. How Democratic candidates navigate responses without amplifying attacks may shape outcomes in competitive Senate and gubernatorial races this fall.