The online prediction market platform Kalshi announced Monday that it has permanently banned former U.S. Rep. George Santos after concluding the former Republican congressman likely engaged in insider trading when he bet against his attendance at the State of the Union address.
Santos turned a $17,839 profit on his trading activity, according to the company. The lifetime ban was effective last Friday and prevents him from accessing Kalshi directly or indirectly. The platform also imposed a $71,356 penalty.
Kalshi's Compliance Department said it established reasonable cause to believe Santos engaged in insider trading because he was capable of influencing the outcome of whether he would attend the address. The company said Santos placed large bets between Feb. 2 and Feb. 25 on his attendance, then began making public statements about whether he would attend in an effort to influence the price of the bets.
On the eve of President Donald Trump's State of the Union speech, Kalshi put the odds of Santos attending at close to 75%. Minutes into the address, Santos posted on X that he had been waylaid at the airport. Social media users immediately accused him of running another scheme.
Santos addressed complaints about his attendance on his podcast in March. "I guess people lost money," he said. "Some people made unexpected money. That's to show you how fragile these markets are."
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic ethics advocates have pointed to the Santos case as evidence of ongoing accountability concerns following his 2024 fraud conviction. The former congressman was sentenced to seven years in prison after pleading guilty to fraud and identity theft charges stemming from his 2022 campaign.
Progressives have noted that despite serving only 84 days of his sentence before being released by Trump's commutation, Santos faces continued legal consequences in the private sector. Consumer protection advocates argue that prediction markets must enforce strict standards against insider trading to maintain market integrity.
Former Rep. Katie Hill, a California Democrat who herself resigned amid an ethics controversy in 2019, has spoken about the unique accountability gaps facing former members. "When you're inside Congress, there are certain rules," she said in prior interviews discussing ethics enforcement. "The question is always what happens after."
What the Right Is Saying
Republican defenders of Santos have emphasized his voting record alongside the party during his brief tenure in office. They note that despite his personal legal troubles, he consistently voted with Republican priorities on legislation.
Some conservative commentators have questioned whether Kalshi's enforcement action amounts to appropriate regulatory behavior or overreach by a private company. "Prediction markets are relatively new territory," one industry observer noted in commentary. "The rules around what constitutes insider trading in these spaces aren't always clear."
President Trump, who commuted Santos's sentence earlier this year, called him a "rogue" but said he did not deserve a harsh sentence and should receive credit for voting Republican. The former president's defense of Santos remains notable given the subsequent allegations from Kalshi.
What the Numbers Show
$17,839: Profit Santos generated through his trading activity on whether he would attend the State of the Union address.
$71,356: Penalty imposed by Kalshi as part of the permanent ban.
75%: Odds Kalshi had set for Santos attending the speech on the eve of President Trump's address to Congress.
84: Days Santos served in prison before Trump commuted his seven-year sentence earlier this year.
7: Years in prison Santos was originally sentenced to after pleading guilty to fraud and identity theft charges in 2024, including wire fraud and unauthorized use of identification.
The Bottom Line
The permanent ban represents a rare instance of accountability extending beyond government oversight into the private sector. Santos, who fabricated a bogus persona as a Wall Street dealmaker during his 2022 campaign, has faced consequences from both the criminal justice system and now commercial platforms.
Kalshi's action underscores growing questions about insider trading rules in prediction markets, where participants with unique knowledge of outcomes can potentially profit before public information becomes available. The case may prompt broader regulatory discussion about oversight of these trading platforms.
Santos did not respond to requests for comment on Monday. His podcast remarks in March suggested minimal concern about the outcome, framing market losses by other participants as evidence of volatility rather than misconduct.