Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand holds a narrow lead over Republican businessman Zach Lahn in Iowa's gubernatorial race, according to a new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey released Wednesday. The same poll shows Democrat Josh Turek trailing Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in the state's open Senate contest.
Sand, who is seeking his second term as state auditor, has positioned himself as a bipartisan fiscal watchdog during his time in office. Lahn, a political newcomer and businessman, entered the race with support from national Republicans. The governor's race comes as Gov. Kim Reynolds, a Republican, is termed out after two terms.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans have countered that national political headwinds favor their candidates heading into 2026. The party has sought to tie Sand to the Biden-Harris administration's policies, arguing he would bring liberal priorities to the governor's office despite his moderate reputation.
Lahn's campaign has focused on economic issues, pledging to cut regulations and reduce taxes to attract businesses to Iowa. National Republican groups have signaled they view the gubernatorial race as competitive. "Iowans want a governor who will put their families first," Lahn said in a recent candidate forum.
On the Senate side, Hinson's campaign has highlighted her two terms in the House and committee assignments on appropriations matters. Republicans argue she is better positioned to represent Iowa's interests than Turek.
What the Left Is Saying
Iowa Democrats have pointed to Sand's record of auditing state agencies and releasing government transparency reports as evidence of his crossover appeal. State Democratic Party officials have argued that Sand's independent posture sets him apart from typical partisan candidates. "Rob has proven he can work across the aisle to protect taxpayers," said a spokesperson for the Iowa Democratic Party in a statement.
On the Senate race, Turek's campaign has emphasized his background as a military veteran and small business owner. Supporters argue Hinson's votes on key issues could put her out of step with moderate voters in the general election, should she win the Republican primary.
What the Numbers Show
The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey found Sand with 49 percent of likely voters compared to Lahn, who polling shows in the mid-40s range. The race falls within the poll's margin of error, indicating a competitive contest that could shift as Election Day approaches.
In the Senate race, Hinson leads Turek by a margin that exceeds the poll's sampling error, giving Republicans an advantage heading into the final stretch of campaigning. Neither candidate has secured the majority threshold typically needed to avoid a runoff in Iowa's electoral context.
The Bottom Line
The polling suggests Iowa remains a battleground state with competitive races up and down the ballot. Sand's lead provides Democrats with optimism in a traditionally Republican-leaning state, while Hinson's Senate advantage reflects her name recognition from two terms in Congress. Both races could be decisive in determining whether Republicans or Democrats control statewide offices after 2026.
Voters should expect increased campaign activity and advertising spending as both parties compete for undecided voters in the coming months.