Voters in New Hampshire are heading to the polls Tuesday for a Republican primary for U.S. Senate that features two former senators, John Sununu and Scott Brown, in a contest that defies the national anti-establishment trend. While many primaries across the country have been defined by outsider candidates and heavy involvement from President Donald Trump, the New Hampshire race centers on familiar figures who have been out of office for nearly two decades. The winner will face the Democratic nominee in the general election, where national political dynamics and Trump's approval ratings are expected to play a significant role.
John Sununu, who will turn 62 this week, served three terms in the U.S. House and one in the Senate before losing his seat to Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in 2008. Shaheen is now retiring after three terms. Sununu has not been on a ballot in 18 years, a period long enough for children born during his final year in office to reach voting age. Scott Brown, who will turn 67 this week, won a special election in Massachusetts in 2009 following the death of Sen. Ted Kennedy, lost his seat in 2012, and unsuccessfully challenged Shaheen in New Hampshire in 2014. Both candidates are among 27 former members of Congress mounting comeback campaigns this year, though only nine have advanced to general election contests.
What the Right Is Saying
Republican voters in New Hampshire appear comfortable with their choice of former legislators, with many citing experience and name recognition as key factors. Paul Martino, a voter from North Hampton, said he supports Sununu because the former senator seems "smart, honest and civic-minded," adding, "We need more people who try to find commonalities we can work off of versus differences we can use to be divisive." Ed Gleason, 89, of Pelham, expressed support for Brown, stating, "He's got the background, he's got experience, he's got a proven, demonstrated interest in the people of New Hampshire... We've got to get some stability in there." Sununu, who was endorsed by President Trump in February, has emphasized his independence from Washington, noting, "I don't need to worry about reelection. I don't need to make anyone in Washington happy. I'll just stand up for New Hampshire." Brown, who served as Trump's ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa during the president's first term, has positioned himself as a "freelancer" who can "vote his conscience" because he lacks the special interest ties he attributes to Sununu. Brown stated, "John can't break with the president. He can't break with all those special interests... I'm a freelancer. I have the ability to vote my conscience, because I read the bills."
What the Left Is Saying
In the Democratic primary, the race has highlighted a contrast between establishment support and progressive momentum. U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas, 46, secured endorsements from former Vice President Kamala Harris and other party leaders, allowing him to raise significantly more funds than his opponents. However, Karishma Manzur, a 52-year-old research scientist and democratic socialist, has gained ground in polls. Manzur, who holds a doctorate in biochemistry, has argued that Pappas has been beholden to political donors, particularly the pro-Israel lobby. Both Democratic candidates have cast themselves as fighters against corruption in Washington, but the primary has showcased the internal divide between the party's establishment wing and its progressive base.
What the Numbers Show
The New Hampshire primary is one of the few high-profile races this cycle where President Trump's endorsement has not been the decisive factor. Trump endorsed Sununu in February, despite Sununu having called the president a "loser" during the 2024 GOP presidential primary. Brown, despite being a former Trump appointee, did not leverage the endorsement battle as heavily as other candidates might have. University of New Hampshire political science professor Dante Scala noted that Trump's influence was minimal in this race, observing that Brown did not make the campaign "all about who is the Trumpiest." Scala suggested this might reflect Brown's political style from an earlier era. In the broader context, 27 former members of Congress launched comeback campaigns this year, but only nine have advanced to general election contests, indicating that voters in most states are rejecting the return of former incumbents.
The Bottom Line
The outcome of Tuesday's primary will set the stage for a general election contest where the Republican nominee will face a Democratic candidate in a state that has become increasingly competitive. While the primary has been characterized by a preference for experience and independence among Republican voters, the general election will be influenced by national conditions, including President Trump's approval ratings, which polls suggest are low. The Democratic primary contrast between Pappas and Manzur may also shape the general election narrative, depending on whether the party unites behind its nominee. Political observers will watch for how the chosen Republican candidate navigates the tension between their stated independence and the national GOP brand as the election draws closer in eight weeks.