The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was projected to win a strong victory in a regional election in Saxony-Anhalt, though it remained unclear if the party would secure enough seats to form Germany's first far-right state government since World War II. Projections based on exit polls and early counting placed the AfD at approximately 44% of the vote, more than double its performance five years ago.
The result represents a significant challenge to Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which has governed the eastern state for 24 years. While the AfD's candidate for governor, Ulrich Siegmund, declared a historic win, the party needed an absolute majority to govern without coalition partners, a threshold it appears to have narrowly missed in initial projections.
What the Right Is Saying
AfD national co-leader Alice Weidel described the projected result as 'sensational' and asserted that the party received 'a very clear mandate to govern.' She stated that the AfD's 'hand is outstretched to all who want to make Saxony-Anhalt better and move Germany forward,' signaling a willingness to engage with other parties despite the existing coalition barriers.
Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD's gubernatorial candidate, framed the election as a direct rebuke of Chancellor Merz, stating, 'Every day this man is in the chancellery is one too many.' Siegmund emphasized priorities such as a 'deportation offensive,' ending incentives for what he termed 'illegal' residents, and withdrawing the state from regional public broadcasting due to concerns over 'disinformation.'
Incumbent Governor Sven Schulze of the CDU acknowledged the loss, congratulating the AfD on becoming the state's strongest political force. Franziska Hoppermann, the CDU's national general secretary, called it 'a very difficult result' but reaffirmed her party's refusal to break the firewall against coalition talks with the AfD.
What the Left Is Saying
The Left Party and the center-left Social Democrats each polled around 9% in the state, reflecting a continued fragmentation of the progressive vote in eastern Germany. Mainstream parties, including the Greens, have maintained a strict 'firewall' policy, refusing to form coalitions with the AfD, which is classified as a proven right-wing extremist group by Germany's domestic intelligence agency.
Critics within the political left have pointed to the AfD's rise as a symptom of widespread discontent with the national government's handling of the economy and migration. However, the left's inability to coalesce around a stronger alternative in Saxony-Anhalt has limited its capacity to block the AfD's surge in state-level politics.
What the Numbers Show
According to projections for ARD and ZDF public television, the AfD secured approximately 44% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, a region with a population of 2.1 million. This represents a substantial increase from its previous performance, effectively doubling its support compared to the 2021 state election.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, was projected to receive 18.5% of the vote, losing about half of its support base in the state. The Left Party, the Social Democrats, and the Greens each polled around 9%. The BSW party's ability to surpass the 5% threshold required to win seats in the state legislature remained uncertain at the time of the projections.
The AfD's projected seat count was marginally short of an absolute majority in the state legislature, which would have allowed it to govern independently. This shortfall highlights the persistent structural challenges the party faces in translating vote share into executive power under Germany's current political alignments.
The Bottom Line
The election results mark a pivotal moment in German politics, testing the durability of the mainstream parties' refusal to cooperate with the far-right. Whether or not the AfD forms a government, the outcome weakens Chancellor Merz's political standing and underscores growing voter dissatisfaction with the federal government's economic policies and migration strategy.
Germany's 16 states hold significant powers over security and education, meaning control of Saxony-Anhalt's government would allow the AfD to implement its platform on issues such as schooling and broadcasting. The next steps involve coalition negotiations, with the AfD's inability to secure a majority potentially leading to political gridlock or a fragile minority government if other parties break the firewall.