Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party secured a significant victory in the parliamentary election for the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, winning 44 percent of the seats. The result places the party just three seats short of a majority and represents a historic breach in the political firewall that has long prevented the AfD from holding executive power. The outcome serves as a major challenge to Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose national approval ratings have plummeted amid growing political polarization.
The election results reflect deepening divisions in German politics, particularly in the former East German states. The AfD, which has been labeled as extremist by German intelligence agencies, campaigned on strict anti-immigration policies and a desire to expand its influence to the national level. While the AfD did not win an outright majority, the result signals that the traditional center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which previously held the state, has lost its dominance. The victory has drawn immediate reactions from European leaders and analysts who view the shift as a potential destabilizing factor for the European Union and German foreign policy.
What the Right Is Saying
The AfD and its supporters frame the victory as a mandate from voters who feel left behind by current government policies on immigration and economic change. Alice Weidel, the leader of the AfD, emphasized the party’s commitment to strict border controls. "If we assume responsibility for government in Germany at the national level, we will close the borders, and only those who have a legal right to reside in Germany will be allowed to come here," Weidel said through a translator. She further noted the party’s intent to deport those who commit crimes or reside in the country illegally. For many voters in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD represents a rejection of what they perceive as excessive changes due to globalization, migration, and shifts in energy policy. Chancellor Merz acknowledged the severity of the defeat for his party, stating, "We are all deeply shocked... this is the most serious election defeat that the CDU has had for years, for decades."
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive voices and European allies have expressed concern that the AfD’s rise signals a surrender by traditional conservative parties to far-right ideologies. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez described the result as a warning to the continent. "What we saw yesterday in Saxony is a warning and also a confirmation, a warning that the far right threat, thanks in large part to the surrender of the traditional right, is gaining ground in Europe and in the world," Sanchez stated. Analysts aligned with this view argue that the AfD’s platform, which includes proposals to limit historical education on the Nazi era and reduce the role of public broadcasters, poses a threat to democratic norms. The party has been accused by critics of promoting Islamophobia and antisemitism, a characterization the AfD leadership has largely rejected.
What the Numbers Show
The AfD won 44 percent of the seats in the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament, missing a majority by only three seats. In contrast, the CDU, which won the previous election in the state, saw its support collapse. Polling data cited in the report indicates that Chancellor Friedrich Merz holds a mere 16 percent approval rating nationwide, with disapproval reaching 87 percent in Saxony-Anhalt. Liana Fix, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, noted that while East Germany has economically caught up with the West, a sentiment of being left behind persists. She explained that this feeling is compounded by "a profound sense that immigration policies have gone too far" and shocks related to Russia, AI, and China. On the federal level, the AfD is currently polling as the strongest party, ahead of Merz’s CDU, though it is considered unlikely to form a federal government immediately.
The Bottom Line
The primary implication of this election is the erosion of the "firewall" policy, where other German parties refuse to form coalitions with the AfD. Liana Fix explained that preventing the AfD from taking power in Saxony-Anhalt would require a coalition of all other five parties, from conservatives to left-wingers, which is politically difficult to sustain. This dynamic raises questions about the future direction of the CDU and Chancellor Merz’s leadership, especially with two more state elections approaching in Berlin and another eastern region within two weeks. While foreign policy remains a federal competency, there are concerns that an AfD-led state government could hinder military mobilization efforts or complicate intelligence sharing, given fears of leaks to Russia. European neighbors, particularly Poland and France, have expressed alarm at the prospect of German military power being influenced by a party with closer ties to Russia and China.