Senate Republicans’ primary outside spending group has entered the Texas Senate race with an initial $32 million advertising buy supporting Ken Paxton, just days after President Donald Trump’s political operation committed another $10 million to the contest. The influx of funding marks a significant escalation in a race that polling data suggests is unusually competitive for a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988.
Texas PAC, a new entity connected to Senate Leadership Fund, purchased approximately $32 million in broadcast television advertising across the Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin markets. According to Politico, Senate Republicans are preparing to spend more than $50 million on the race in total. This investment follows a $10 million ad buy from MAGA Inc., President Trump’s super PAC, earlier in the month, which was split evenly between positive ads for Paxton and negative ads against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic strategists point to the heavy Republican spending as evidence of vulnerability in a state they have not won in a Senate contest for decades. A spokesperson for Senate Majority PAC, the Democratic Senate super PAC, noted that the group has not yet reserved advertising time in Texas, framing the Republican outlay as a necessity driven by Paxton’s campaign needing significant outside assistance to remain competitive.
The Democratic perspective highlights polling data showing their candidate, State Rep. James Talarico, leading Paxton 48% to 44% among likely voters in an AARP survey released recently. With 8% of voters undecided, Democrats are positioning the race as a genuine opportunity to flip a seat in a deeply conservative state, relying primarily on Talarico’s campaign funds rather than large-scale super PAC interventions so far.
What the Right Is Saying
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), whose affiliated super PAC was previously absent from the Texas contest, stated that Republicans must support Paxton due to the state’s unusually expensive media environment, which comprises 20 separate television markets. Thune had previously supported Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) during the primary and described Paxton as "scandal-plagued," but shifted his stance after Paxton defeated Cornyn in the runoff following President Trump’s endorsement.
President Donald Trump emphasized the importance of retaining the seat, stating at a Dallas convention that Republicans "have to elect Ken Paxton." Trump indicated he would return to Texas "twice or three times" to campaign if necessary. While Trump continued to joke about Paxton’s appearance and mannerisms, he also called him "the greatest attorney general in America" and asserted that Paxton deserved to be the next senator.
What the Numbers Show
According to media-tracking firm AdImpact, Republican groups have spent or reserved $60.8 million in advertising since Paxton won the May runoff. In comparison, Democratic spending stands at $43.7 million, with nearly all of that money coming directly from Talarico’s campaign rather than external groups. Additionally, Elon Musk’s America PAC has spent more than $2.6 million on phone calls, text messages, and printed advertisements supporting Paxton and opposing Talarico, as reported by The Texas Tribune.
The AARP survey indicates a tight contest, with Talarico leading 48% to 44% among likely voters. The financial disparity highlights a strategic shift: while Democrats are relying on a single candidate’s war chest, Republicans are deploying multiple high-dollar entities, including Texas PAC, MAGA Inc., and America PAC, to saturate the airwaves. Senate Leadership Fund’s entry into the race represents its first financial involvement in Texas since the Republican primary, despite having reserved hundreds of millions of dollars for other competitive Senate races nationwide.
The Bottom Line
The massive financial commitment from Republican-aligned groups underscores the perceived risk to the party’s control of the Senate, despite Texas’s historical red lean. With over $60 million in Republican ad spend versus nearly $44 million from Democrats, the race has become one of the most expensive state contests in the country. The coming weeks will test whether this spending blitz can overcome the polling deficit and secure the seat for Paxton, or if Talarico’s campaign can maintain its momentum without the backing of a major Senate super PAC.