The Atlantic hurricane season has reached a historic quiet period, with no hurricanes forming so far in 2026 despite the calendar indicating peak storm activity. According to the National Hurricane Center, only five weak and brief tropical storms have developed this season. Nick Novella, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center, stated that 2026 has set a record for the longest start to a season without a storm reaching hurricane-force winds (74 mph) in the satellite era.
Meteorologists attribute this lack of activity to a strong El Niño pattern, which creates atmospheric conditions that suppress storm formation. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, noted that overall Atlantic hurricane activity is currently at a post-1950 record low. Data indicates that storm activity in the Atlantic is only 7% of normal levels for this time of year.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive climate advocates and scientific commentators emphasize the complexity of climate interactions, noting that record ocean temperatures do not automatically equate to immediate hurricane frequency. Experts cited in the reporting, such as MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel, highlight that while oceans have been record hot for 100 days, the atmospheric dynamics of El Niño are currently overriding this factor. The focus among this group is on the unpredictability of climate systems and the need for continued vigilance despite the current lull.
Several experts warn that historical precedents, such as the 1992 season which began late but produced devastating Hurricane Andrew, suggest that a quiet start does not guarantee a safe season. This perspective underscores the importance of federal funding for disaster preparedness and early warning systems, regardless of current activity levels.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative commentators and skeptics of immediate climate catastrophe narratives point to the current suppression of Atlantic storms as evidence of natural cyclical weather patterns. They argue that the strong El Niño effect demonstrates the power of natural ocean-atmosphere interactions to influence weather, potentially challenging the narrative that warming alone drives immediate increases in Atlantic hurricane frequency. Brian McNoldy, a University of Miami hurricane expert, noted that forecasters predicted a slow season months in advance due to El Niño, suggesting that traditional meteorological models remain robust.
This group often highlights the economic burden of hurricane preparedness and infrastructure hardening, arguing that resources should be allocated based on current risk assessments rather than long-term projections. They note that the quiet Atlantic allows for a reprieve in federal disaster spending, though experts caution that the Gulf of Mexico remains a potential area for late-season storm development.
What the Numbers Show
Data from the National Hurricane Center confirms that no Atlantic hurricanes have formed this year, and none are expected for at least another week. Only five relatively weak tropical storms have formed. In contrast, the eastern Pacific has seen nearly double the normal storm activity, with 16 named storms, while the central Pacific has recorded 20 named storms, approximately 40% more than normal.
Wind shear in the area between Africa and the Caribbean is about 45 mph (74 kph) higher than what a tropical cyclone can withstand, a level described as unheard of by University at Albany professor Kristen Corbosiero. This shear, combined with dry air and downward-pushing high pressure, creates a "triple whammy" that decapitates forming storms. Conversely, the Gulf of Mexico has not experienced high wind shear, leaving it vulnerable to late-season storms.
The Bottom Line
The current quiet Atlantic season is a direct result of strong El Niño conditions, which have suppressed storm development despite record warm ocean temperatures. Experts warn that this does not eliminate risk, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, and that the persistence of warm Atlantic waters could lead to an extra-busy hurricane season next year as El Niño winds down. Residents and policymakers are advised to maintain preparedness protocols, as historical data shows that catastrophic storms can emerge from quiet seasons.