United Russia, the main Kremlin-backed party, retained its majority in Russia’s State Duma following a three-day parliamentary election that excluded most opposition candidates. Preliminary results released by the Central Election Commission indicate the party will hold 355 of the 450 seats in the lower chamber, a record high if confirmed.

The vote marks the first parliamentary election since President Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It included residents of four Ukrainian regions annexed by Moscow in 2022, as well as Crimea, which was annexed in 2014. Kyiv and Western nations have denounced the inclusion of these territories as illegal.

What the Left Is Saying

Critics of the Kremlin, including the liberal Yabloko party and international observers, argue that the election lacked legitimacy due to the exclusion of genuine opposition voices. Yabloko, the only registered party to publicly criticize the war, was removed from the party-list ballot by the Russian Supreme Court and allowed to field only a few dozen candidates in single-constituency races.

Tatyana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center stated that the government was "able to carry out the campaign and the voting the way it wanted, with the most optimal output." She noted that while Putin will interpret the results as confirmation of public support for the war, the "overall demand for ending the war is growing." Stanovaya added that the role of the elections is "greatly exaggerated" in determining future policy, which she said depends more on the military situation and international factors.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) was not invited to observe the election. OSCE Parliamentary Assembly President Pere Joan Pons described the exclusion as a breach of Russia’s commitments as a member state. The Russian Foreign Ministry accused the OSCE of "double standards" for its previous criticisms of the country.

What the Right Is Saying

From the Kremlin’s perspective, the election served to showcase popular support for the war effort and political stability amidst ongoing conflict. The state media campaign highlighted the turnout of just over 59%, the highest for a parliamentary election in over a decade, as evidence of civic engagement.

Central Election Commission chair Ella Pamfilova reported that United Russia secured just under 58% of the vote for the 225 seats apportioned by parties. In the 225 single-constituency races, United Russia candidates led in 208 districts. The Kremlin framed the victory as a mandate to continue its military objectives in Ukraine.

The government also pointed to the participation of voters in the annexed regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, as well as Crimea. In the Russian-held part of the Donetsk region, voters cast ballots under the supervision of armed soldiers, which the state presented as a return to normalcy and integration into the Russian political system.

What the Numbers Show

According to preliminary results from over 95% of polling stations:

• United Russia is projected to win 355 out of 450 seats in the State Duma.

• United Russia received approximately 58% of the party-list vote.

• United Russia candidates led in 208 out of 225 single-constituency races.

• Voter turnout was reported at just over 59%.

• The election took place while Russia’s Defense Ministry reported downing 1,110 Ukrainian drones in a single overnight period, described by Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin as the "largest ever" attack on the capital.

• Three people were killed and 38 injured in the Moscow region during the election period due to drone strikes.

The Bottom Line

The election results solidify the Kremlin’s control over the legislative branch, ensuring that the State Duma will continue to approve initiatives aligned with President Putin’s agenda. The absence of major opposition parties and the integration of annexed territories into the voting process signal a long-term consolidation of power despite the ongoing war.

Analysts like Stanovaya suggest that the next phase will be defined by military developments rather than electoral outcomes. Key factors to watch include the impact of rising economic costs, the frequency of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure, and the potential for further political repression or mobilization efforts.

Final results are scheduled to be announced on Friday. The new parliament will convene to ratify the war budget and potentially pass further restrictions on dissent, as the government seeks to maintain unity while the conflict in Ukraine continues.