Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America announced an expanded voter-contact strategy in North Carolina, citing a new study that found messages highlighting Democratic Senate candidate Roy Cooper’s record on federal abortion legislation produced the largest shift in voter support toward Republican candidate Michael Whatley. The organization reported reaching more than 770,000 homes across the state as it targets what is projected to be one of the most competitive Senate races in the nation.
The race is for the seat currently held by retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. Republicans are seeking to maintain their majority in the Senate, while Democrats aim to flip the seat. The study, commissioned by SBA Pro-Life America and conducted by Evolving Strategies, analyzed the effectiveness of four different message sets regarding abortion policy to determine which arguments most influenced persuadable voters.
What the Left Is Saying
The source material does not include direct quotes or statements from the Democratic campaign, Roy Cooper, or progressive organizations responding to the study. However, the study notes that Cooper’s campaign and allies have previously argued that his vetoes of restrictive abortion laws were intended to protect women and families. Cooper vetoed North Carolina's 2023 law banning most abortions after 12 weeks, a move his supporters framed as necessary to prevent harm to women, though the Republican-controlled General Assembly later overrode the veto.
What the Right Is Saying
Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, stated that the most effective message in North Carolina for the Senate race was highlighting that Gov. Cooper vetoed the 12-week abortion limit. She argued that the veto was "wildly unpopular" in North Carolina and across the country, and that it significantly moved voters toward the Republican candidate. "When it comes to the life issue, the issue that works best in North Carolina for the Senate race is that Gov. Cooper vetoed the 12 week limit... He vetoed it and then his veto was overridden. It was a very unpopular move that really moves voters," Dannenfelser said.
Dannenfelser further noted that Cooper’s veto of a bill providing health care for babies born alive after attempted abortions, contrasted with Whatley’s pro-life positions, also helped move voters in the direction of the Republican candidate. The group’s strategy focuses on identifying "best voters" regardless of party affiliation or religious background, using consumer data to target individuals whose votes are most likely to be moved by these specific messages.
What the Numbers Show
Evolving Strategies conducted a randomized-controlled trial involving an online panel of 2,607 confirmed registered voters in North Carolina. Respondents were randomly assigned to read one of four messages or a placebo control message. The messages included a "Fed" message criticizing Cooper’s support for federal legislation that could override state abortion limits, a "Record" message focusing on his gubernatorial actions, a "Soft Positive" message, and a "Hard Positive" message highlighting Whatley’s positions.
According to the study, all message types shifted the Republican vote margin by at least +1.7 points. The "Fed" message produced the largest shift, increasing the Republican margin by +4.9 points. The "Record" message shifted the margin by +3.2 points, while the "Hard Positive" message shifted it by +3.9 points. The "Soft Positive" message resulted in a +1.7 point shift. Among voters identified as the best persuasion targets through predictive modeling, the study estimated the impact could be significantly larger, potentially moving the Republican vote margin by a net +12 points or more.
The Bottom Line
The findings suggest that abortion policy, particularly the distinction between federal oversight and state-level restrictions, remains a potent mobilizing force in the North Carolina Senate race. SBA Pro-Life America is leveraging these insights to prioritize canvassing efforts in areas with high concentrations of persuadable voters. The extent to which these micro-targeted messages will translate into actual vote shifts in the general election remains to be seen, but the data indicates a clear preference among tested voters for the arguments highlighting Cooper’s vetoes and support for federal legislation.
Voters and analysts will watch to see if the Democratic campaign adapts its messaging to counter the "federal overreach" narrative that appears to resonate with swing voters in the state. The success of the ground game in reaching the 770,000 homes already contacted may be a critical factor in the final outcome of this closely contested race.